Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfee74a9e930055ff37e24abd89bce68f33817b2c6bbafe906064249954fbb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $607,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $607,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 43,509$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 42,800$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…acdabacked Yes | 0c | 18,137$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 0c | 17,156$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 16,477$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 1c | 4,381$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 1c | 3,790$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 2c | 3,216$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,574$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,529$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,888$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,446$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…1999backed Yes | 1c | 1,199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e440backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 362$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 5c | 280.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 4c | 237.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 198.8$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…d455backed Yes | 21c | 145.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…64bebacked Yes | 24c | 62.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.