Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9501af1168e1fd064e415fe4126f217e03f251d39185501133475b83ac021d20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $495,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 80,268$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.52 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 27c | 47,777$12,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,788.79 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 1c | 41,326$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 13c | 13,411$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.47 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 12,054$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,710$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…578fbacked Yes | 26c | 8,594$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 12c | 7,944$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 8c | 7,786$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.86 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 22c | 7,680$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 23c | 7,037$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 11c | 5,801$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 5,016$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.87 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…3a23backed Yes | 25c | 3,870$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed Yes | 11c | 3,587$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 3,322$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 29c | 2,125$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…d09dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,946$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,880$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 43c | 1,860$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,737$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 16c | 1,712$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.26 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,569$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…1999backed Yes | 18c | 1,285$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,279$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 42c | 1,234$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,200$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 63c | 1,197$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.32 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 20c | 1,170$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…1d61backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 38c | 799.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 1c | 789.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…84bdbacked Yes | 15c | 701$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 48c | 641.33$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 628.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 68c | 557.7$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…8c3cbacked Yes | 9c | 556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 67c | 555$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001d…316dbacked Yes | 9c | 468.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 17c | 468.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…5191backed Yes | 12c | 464$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked Yes | 23c | 442.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 22c | 410.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…fa8ebacked Yes | 18c | 404.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 369.73$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 34c | 347.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…6b01backed Yes | 8c | 324.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 31c | 311$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 7c | 308.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 17c | 265.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 78c | 248.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 237.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 78c | 220.89$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 35c | 209.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked Yes | 27c | 203.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked Yes | 13c | 185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 76c | 180$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 14c | 164.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 79c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…b3fbbacked Yes | 18c | 151$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 128.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…103ebacked Yes | 11c | 117.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…9c99backed Yes | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2d33backed Yes | 14c | 112.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…d9e8backed Yes | 19c | 108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…9695backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…49b3backed Yes | 23c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 69c | 92.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 75c | 92.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…f4c4backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…373ebacked Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b6…1d46backed Yes | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f13…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc303…e8c4backed Yes | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…1861backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…b28dbacked Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…11b1backed Yes | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 73.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 18c | 72.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedf…b4c3backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 20c | 69.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…a024backed Yes | 29c | 69.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…e3febacked Yes | 53c | 66.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…ec04backed No | 48c | 65.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…8ca0backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…724dbacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…09ecbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.