TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2779…239abacked Yes39c5,536$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,384.611070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+51.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6383…b007backed No59c4,637$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.7630%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2e9…fc96backed Yes66c4,235$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes37c4,087$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc03…d5c0backed Yes24c3,726$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+142.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No78c2,538$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.656827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9c…9b0abacked Yes7c2,165$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,370.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd7…78e0backed Yes18c1,978$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+462.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No63c1,603$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.2111359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87fa…7464backed Yes34c1,441$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No21c1,311$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.253010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d30…89ccbacked Yes34c1,234$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e6…571ebacked Yes57c1,161$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes28c1,033$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes24c839.2$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2db…236fbacked No77c791.18$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No76c781.42$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.143016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b40…9624backed Yes68c756.57$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes44c655$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.61421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf4…527fbacked Yes25c627.08$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a17…2a51backed Yes72c613.7$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No45c590.4$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.961827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+138.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19c…6bb4backed Yes70c573.39$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes41c508.11$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.573743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes54c508$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.821040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900a…bb70backed Yes23c504.23$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+121.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e1…69a6backed Yes58c499.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2112100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+677.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d71…d427backed Yes30c413.91$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes42c400.21$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+302.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Yes22c400$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3141100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick22cpaid+365.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No59c374.55$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc18…fa1abacked Yes10c370$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3331100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc20a…2425backed Yes45c328.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes22c317$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.262330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed Yes22c315.28$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+128.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed No30c308$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c307.76$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.057466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfabf…c681backed No67c299.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b1…aaadbacked No71c299.99$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b3…bad4backed Yes54c298.91$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.291030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No32c287.69$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9810836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ba…b93bbacked Yes59c279.74$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9bf5backed Yes31c260$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c257.51$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.591752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes58c255.66$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf034…c70dbacked Yes8c249.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c222.35$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.361442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be9…bc73backed Yes28c215.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+260.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c215.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.854621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eec…52bdbacked Yes11c214.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+783.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c209.49$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.212222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc3b8…f32fbacked Yes8c201.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+632.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes30c189.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+81.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes26c187.83$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.871323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0a…c5c0backed Yes8c187.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe56b…ea26backed Yes64c181.49$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…033fbacked Yes55c180.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a04…ad88backed Yes12c179.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+725.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5963…dff1backed Yes56c178.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddd…0014backed No67c175.81$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes42c172.25$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.451060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9672…4289backed Yes9c170.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+468.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes68c139.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.66757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…f63dbacked Yes74c135.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes61c133.91$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No65c123.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.792420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9af2…1215backed Yes33c122.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5876…01e8backed Yes31c121.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+224.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b2d…ff5bbacked No29c119.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c72…4922backed No62c113.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a23…184abacked Yes52c108.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x399c…ed11backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6819931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc11…79a3backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No34c95.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.772227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…96a8backed Yes64c94.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked Yes30c92.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec09…2660backed Yes53c91.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…f6b9backed No71c91.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes72c86.12$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb46…3692backed Yes73c81.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+107.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7920242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdda…e97bbacked No46c80.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No29c77.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes24c75.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.87540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+188%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes67c74.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+49.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No61c72.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.554744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be8…675fbacked No47c67.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9315…8225backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd12a…fb09backed No26c65.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c63.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfde3…719abacked Yes74c63.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No36c63.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb8…f845backed Yes33c61.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No70c58.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.