Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa31be3d7a50a814d6e77901c94fe4f8124b2717f02271bc9eaa5f9cfeb59a0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac6…dc45backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 66c | 4,439$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 63c | 2,276$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 28c | 2,044$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…d5c0backed No | 33c | 1,886$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 1,874$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…7464backed Yes | 74c | 1,799$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 1,526$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.62 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…d084backed No | 73c | 1,365$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,083$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,070$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,064$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.83 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 50c | 1,056$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 34c | 966.26$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 61c | 863.41$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…f63dbacked Yes | 78c | 832.76$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 48c | 655$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc584…cd8bbacked Yes | 48c | 589.83$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d71…d427backed Yes | 71c | 550.43$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 51c | 549.43$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 43c | 545$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 79c | 538.04$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 508$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…3bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 459.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 37c | 430.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 66c | 408.38$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 399.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 392.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 66c | 386.67$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 33c | 370$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…8174backed Yes | 27c | 360$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 345.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.75 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 322.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 27c | 315.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fc71backed Yes | 67c | 297$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 294.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 54c | 290.88$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…0848backed No | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…0182backed No | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…91b9backed No | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…5f1bbacked No | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 61c | 281.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 33c | 281.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…4ab0backed Yes | 44c | 276.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 269.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…b007backed Yes | 68c | 267.29$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…b25dbacked Yes | 24c | 263.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…539dbacked Yes | 77c | 260.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 246.07$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea80…1a22backed No | 35c | 238$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 235.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.95 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 228.75$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 61c | 216.21$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 48c | 212.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…a920backed Yes | 65c | 211$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…34bebacked Yes | 29c | 207.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…209cbacked Yes | 38c | 185.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…ea26backed Yes | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes | 55c | 180.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 51c | 172.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 169.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 27c | 169.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 46c | 161.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 55c | 160$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…2b46backed Yes | 65c | 154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…1abebacked Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19d…0ebabacked Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…19c5backed Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…b5cebacked Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba6…6531backed Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…3061backed Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99d…da4abacked Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…d015backed Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…260fbacked Yes | 33c | 150.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…d2c3backed Yes | 67c | 149.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 144.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd1…8f9cbacked Yes | 71c | 141.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes | 71c | 140.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…689cbacked Yes | 44c | 137.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 64c | 132.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…f972backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…1215backed Yes | 30c | 123.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 120.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 118$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 34c | 117.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 15c | 117.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…f081backed Yes | 57c | 112.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…cc13backed Yes | 23c | 111.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…4922backed Yes | 63c | 109.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…128dbacked Yes | 28c | 108.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…675fbacked Yes | 43c | 104.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 102.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…2660backed Yes | 21c | 101.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed Yes | 74c | 98.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 18c | 96.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +302.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?this page
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?Yes won
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.