TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ac6…dc45backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes66c4,439$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes63c2,276$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.011275%9 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63b0…4cf2backed No28c2,044$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+79%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc03…d5c0backed No33c1,886$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+142.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes16c1,874$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.843010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…7464backed Yes74c1,799$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No41c1,526$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.6211359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…d084backed No73c1,365$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ac…bc7dbacked Yes59c1,083$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f5…27acbacked Yes5c1,070$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes28c1,064$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.838528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes50c1,056$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No34c966.26$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.081827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+138.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes61c863.41$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3285…f63dbacked Yes78c832.76$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes48c655$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.541421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc584…cd8bbacked Yes48c589.83$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d71…d427backed Yes71c550.43$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes51c549.43$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.423743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No43c545$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+120%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x900a…bb70backed Yes79c538.04$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+121.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes39c508$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.061040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f1…3bfcbacked Yes8c459.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No37c430.14$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes66c408.38$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c399.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9919931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes16c392.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.721323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked Yes66c386.67$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes33c370$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+80.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes27c360$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c345.66$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.757466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes55c322.31$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.134621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes27c315.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.637135.2%25 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…fc71backed Yes67c297$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes17c294.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.912330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed Yes54c290.88$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ba…0848backed No35c285$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…0182backed No35c285$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6763…91b9backed No35c285$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9520…5f1bbacked No35c285$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5059…720cbacked Yes61c281.68$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes33c281.52$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.321154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+81.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed78…4ab0backed Yes44c276.44$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No55c269.08$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6383…b007backed Yes68c267.29$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20ed…b25dbacked Yes24c263.68$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0353…539dbacked Yes77c260.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c246.07$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.171752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea80…1a22backed No35c238$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No19c235.9$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.95498.2%4 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c228.75$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5720242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes61c216.21$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.87450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked Yes48c212.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed5…a920backed Yes65c211$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0e…34bebacked Yes29c207.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Yes28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb98…209cbacked Yes38c185.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56b…ea26backed Yes30c181$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes55c180.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes51c172.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.141060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No38c169.93$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.121764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x121f…4765backed Yes27c169.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes46c161.29$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.48955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes55c160$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…2b46backed Yes65c154$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6861…1abebacked Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19d…0ebabacked Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7016…19c5backed Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b97…b5cebacked Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba6…6531backed Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21fa…3061backed Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe99d…da4abacked Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5356…d015backed Yes65c153$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f5…260fbacked Yes33c150.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb2…d2c3backed Yes67c149.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c144.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6629913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd1…8f9cbacked Yes71c141.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes71c140.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1a1…689cbacked Yes44c137.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes64c132.36$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ab…f972backed Yes76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9af2…1215backed Yes30c123.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No10c120.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.82397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c118$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.31315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes34c117.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.03757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No15c117.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb5…f081backed Yes57c112.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc062…cc13backed Yes23c111.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c72…4922backed Yes63c109.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b42…128dbacked Yes28c108.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be8…675fbacked Yes43c104.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes62c102.36$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-74.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec09…2660backed Yes21c101.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53b4…0139backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90c…9bb7backed Yes74c98.64$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No18c96.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+302.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.