TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$415,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$451,441

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2317…c891backed Warriors53c70,701$37,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,311.1311842.4%50 W · 68 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat51c26,913$13,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,207.883,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Heat79c21,327$16,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.986361.9%39 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9483…39b2backed Warriors47c15,329$7,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,211.896863.2%43 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6410…1ff4backed Heat80c14,545$11,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.5311164%71 W · 40 L+13.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb93d…8949backed Warriors50c13,034$6,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500.751428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat34c12,987$4,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,542.3465642.5%279 W · 377 L-2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Heat22c10,310$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,038.291,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Heat80c9,729$7,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.7370147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Heat23c8,482$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,495.762351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c1…5a05backed Warriors80c8,150$6,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,501.432544%11 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat54c6,775$3,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.311,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Warriors76c5,927$4,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,523.920248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Warriors79c5,654$4,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,466.9637448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Heat57c5,368$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.6329043.8%127 W · 163 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Heat27c5,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,66040627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Heat20c4,936$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.87032.9%23 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Heat49c4,539$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.3436843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Heat64c4,001$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.4619451.5%100 W · 94 L-17.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dcf…7400backed Heat51c3,885$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.346855.9%38 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Warriors74c3,655$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.3685347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Warriors77c3,300$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.937954.1%205 W · 174 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Warriors45c3,283$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.2830443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…1d6bbacked Heat24c2,945$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.2850245.8%230 W · 272 L+2.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat42c2,878$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.251,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Heat22c2,864$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.5714039.3%55 W · 85 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Heat55c2,844$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.5649849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Warriors1c2,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed Heat21c2,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.935947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Warriors3c2,400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841348.2%11 W · 123 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Warriors75c2,303$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.2513638.2%52 W · 84 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat23c2,227$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.4676249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Heat20c2,194$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.8746131%143 W · 318 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Heat54c2,070$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7461532.2%198 W · 417 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Warriors1c2,032$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Heat21c2,001$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,58196447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Heat22c2,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56029635.8%106 W · 190 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Warriors78c2,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56025651.6%132 W · 124 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Heat24c2,000$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.731,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Warriors72c2,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9989353%473 W · 420 L+1.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…2f5fbacked Heat23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.992050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Heat51c1,960$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.5966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat22c1,859$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.771,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Warriors1c1,821$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.911,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Heat22c1,659$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.013627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed Warriors78c1,641$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2806943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3e…b656backed Warriors79c1,639$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2955269.2%36 W · 16 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54f5…e936backed Warriors54c1,501$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.1715947.8%76 W · 83 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Warriors35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.998343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c27…c8b4backed Heat49c1,492$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.1217141.5%71 W · 100 L-0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc835…9525backed Heat49c1,479$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.26850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70de…5688backed Warriors6c1,403$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.84429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Heat49c1,333$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.297248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc203…74f3backed Heat60c1,325$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.4725957.5%149 W · 110 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d73…5693backed Warriors78c1,283$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed Heat21c1,267$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.99250%46 W · 46 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Warriors79c1,266$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015558.7%91 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Heat24c1,262$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.321,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Warriors73c1,229$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.3777745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Warriors44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52825939%101 W · 158 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…07d4backed Heat65c1,169$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Warriors78c1,167$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.974654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Heat56c1,130$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.4839843.5%173 W · 225 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd3…7214backed Warriors48c1,072$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.7518632.8%61 W · 125 L-12.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b02…e4e8backed Heat21c1,070$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.591553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…4976backed Heat22c1,032$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Warriors9c1,028$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x542e…e88ebacked Warriors62c1,014$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.2114941.6%62 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Warriors78c1,000$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.561,16654.4%634 W · 532 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Heat22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78022721.6%49 W · 178 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Warriors2c926.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.535502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e09…1c3fbacked Warriors78c906.94$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.4111662.9%73 W · 43 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0280…7305backed Warriors41c900$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3704250%21 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Heat23c869.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.5738027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Warriors70c847.84$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9336748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b7…bde1backed Heat72c841.83$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.969739.2%38 W · 59 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e30…ef89backed Warriors34c812.98$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.417741.6%32 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c57…9780backed Heat25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004045%18 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Warriors77c800$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61673051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a8…adcebacked Heat20c792.53$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.7316341.1%67 W · 96 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat21c749.95$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.4675347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8de…e12abacked Heat22c702.73$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…263abacked Warriors78c693.49$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick65cpaid-60.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Warriors29c669.63$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2426235.9%94 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Warriors74c633.58$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8563555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Heat23c622$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.9468642.1%289 W · 397 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked Heat24c618.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.3127735.4%98 W · 179 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Warriors75c600$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b4…5aabbacked Warriors77c599.98$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.9817363.6%110 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7a…03a5backed Heat39c577.03$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+104.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Heat23c568.1$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.81,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Warriors75c564.15$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.112864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2065…48f2backed Warriors78c554.03$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.141643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabdb…4f06backed Warriors79c544.3$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1b…cc3abacked Warriors78c520$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-45.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Warriors53c518.25$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.919152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x897e…98cbbacked Warriors79c506.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe91d…81dfbacked Warriors79c503.41$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004573.3%33 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed Heat45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2759330.1%28 W · 65 L-15.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x967f…3750backed Heat47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+61.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.