NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Warriors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8b722b8e768d7eb2b3014d6530d9886c4df14d5ccf69f7479f77c5d0e7e494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $415,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $451,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2317…c891backed Warriors | 53c | 70,701$37,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,311.13 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 51c | 26,913$13,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,207.88 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Heat | 79c | 21,327$16,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,510.98 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…39b2backed Warriors | 47c | 15,329$7,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,211.89 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…1ff4backed Heat | 80c | 14,545$11,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.53 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +13.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb93d…8949backed Warriors | 50c | 13,034$6,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat | 34c | 12,987$4,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,542.34 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Heat | 22c | 10,310$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,038.29 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Heat | 80c | 9,729$7,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.73 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Heat | 23c | 8,482$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,495.7 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…5a05backed Warriors | 80c | 8,150$6,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,501.43 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Heat | 54c | 6,775$3,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,137.31 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Warriors | 76c | 5,927$4,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,523.9 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…d994backed Warriors | 79c | 5,654$4,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,466.96 | 374 | 48.7%182 W · 192 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Heat | 57c | 5,368$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.63 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Heat | 27c | 5,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,660 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Heat | 20c | 4,936$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.8 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Heat | 49c | 4,539$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.34 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Heat | 64c | 4,001$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.46 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -17.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…7400backed Heat | 51c | 3,885$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.34 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Warriors | 74c | 3,655$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,691.36 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Warriors | 77c | 3,300$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.9 | 379 | 54.1%205 W · 174 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Warriors | 45c | 3,283$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.28 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…1d6bbacked Heat | 24c | 2,945$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.28 | 502 | 45.8%230 W · 272 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat | 42c | 2,878$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.25 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Heat | 22c | 2,864$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.57 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Heat | 55c | 2,844$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.56 | 498 | 49.4%246 W · 252 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Warriors | 1c | 2,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Heat | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.93 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Warriors | 3c | 2,400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 134 | 8.2%11 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Warriors | 75c | 2,303$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.25 | 136 | 38.2%52 W · 84 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat | 23c | 2,227$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.46 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Heat | 20c | 2,194$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.87 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Heat | 54c | 2,070$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.74 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Warriors | 1c | 2,032$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Heat | 21c | 2,001$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Heat | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 296 | 35.8%106 W · 190 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Warriors | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Heat | 24c | 2,000$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.73 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Warriors | 72c | 2,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.99 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…2f5fbacked Heat | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Heat | 51c | 1,960$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.59 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat | 22c | 1,859$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.77 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Warriors | 1c | 1,821$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Heat | 22c | 1,659$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.01 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Warriors | 78c | 1,641$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…b656backed Warriors | 79c | 1,639$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…e936backed Warriors | 54c | 1,501$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.17 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Warriors | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…c8b4backed Heat | 49c | 1,492$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.12 | 171 | 41.5%71 W · 100 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…9525backed Heat | 49c | 1,479$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…5688backed Warriors | 6c | 1,403$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Heat | 49c | 1,333$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.29 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…74f3backed Heat | 60c | 1,325$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.47 | 259 | 57.5%149 W · 110 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d73…5693backed Warriors | 78c | 1,283$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed Heat | 21c | 1,267$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.9 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked Warriors | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Heat | 24c | 1,262$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.32 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Warriors | 73c | 1,229$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.37 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Warriors | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…07d4backed Heat | 65c | 1,169$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Warriors | 78c | 1,167$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.97 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Heat | 56c | 1,130$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.48 | 398 | 43.5%173 W · 225 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Warriors | 48c | 1,072$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.75 | 186 | 32.8%61 W · 125 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…e4e8backed Heat | 21c | 1,070$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…4976backed Heat | 22c | 1,032$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Warriors | 9c | 1,028$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542e…e88ebacked Warriors | 62c | 1,014$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.21 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Warriors | 78c | 1,000$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.56 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Heat | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 227 | 21.6%49 W · 178 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Warriors | 2c | 926.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…1c3fbacked Warriors | 78c | 906.94$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.41 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…7305backed Warriors | 41c | 900$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Heat | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.57 | 380 | 27.1%103 W · 277 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Warriors | 70c | 847.84$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.93 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed Heat | 72c | 841.83$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.96 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Warriors | 34c | 812.98$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.41 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…9780backed Heat | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Warriors | 77c | 800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 730 | 51.8%378 W · 352 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…adcebacked Heat | 20c | 792.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.73 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat | 21c | 749.95$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.46 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8de…e12abacked Heat | 22c | 702.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…263abacked Warriors | 78c | 693.49$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Warriors | 29c | 669.63$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 262 | 35.9%94 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Warriors | 74c | 633.58$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.85 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Heat | 23c | 622$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.94 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Heat | 24c | 618.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.31 | 277 | 35.4%98 W · 179 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Warriors | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Warriors | 77c | 599.98$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.98 | 173 | 63.6%110 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7a…03a5backed Heat | 39c | 577.03$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Heat | 23c | 568.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.8 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…acc6backed Warriors | 75c | 564.15$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.11 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…48f2backed Warriors | 78c | 554.03$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…4f06backed Warriors | 79c | 544.3$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1b…cc3abacked Warriors | 78c | 520$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Warriors | 53c | 518.25$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.9 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…98cbbacked Warriors | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…81dfbacked Warriors | 79c | 503.41$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed Heat | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -15.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…3750backed Heat | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.