Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2c59ffeb6d19ec30d9a1a689b0a2f50381d442f9a159ab9dfd2a2aae0948bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,465,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,976,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,465,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 588 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 6c | 145,996$9,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,216.9 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3787…c451backed Yes | 16c | 137,536$22,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,090.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 14c | 85,000$11,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,647.96 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…4513backed Yes | 10c | 80,501$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 13c | 68,293$8,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,679.93 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 68,172$9,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,177.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…1e89backed Yes | 13c | 52,596$6,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,796.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 47,641$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.47 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…bee4backed Yes | 11c | 43,477$4,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,604.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…f838backed Yes | 13c | 43,302$5,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,719.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…c974backed Yes | 14c | 33,295$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes | 14c | 30,032$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 8c | 30,000$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 11c | 25,442$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 14c | 24,689$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 24,400$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 13c | 23,961$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 23,156$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.22 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 8c | 20,500$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +111%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 12c | 19,380$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.71 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…2da4backed Yes | 13c | 19,016$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 10c | 15,308$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.94 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 11c | 15,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 14,784$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.93 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 13c | 13,975$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.31 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a54…f60bbacked Yes | 11c | 11,835$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2485…0006backed Yes | 9c | 10,932$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4150…3ee7backed Yes | 12c | 10,433$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…b79cbacked Yes | 16c | 9,859$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 7,900$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 8c | 7,880$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,684$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.92 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 14c | 7,504$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.14 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cae…cd4dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,483$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…2a4dbacked Yes | 8c | 7,409$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 13c | 7,376$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 3c | 7,295$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.17 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…f4c6backed Yes | 14c | 7,036$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 7c | 6,710$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69da…f98cbacked Yes | 15c | 6,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 16c | 6,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 11c | 6,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…9d98backed Yes | 13c | 5,933$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…557cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…dbe2backed Yes | 20c | 5,551$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…6a77backed Yes | 2c | 5,215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…addabacked Yes | 15c | 5,019$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f2…bbc2backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…8fa9backed Yes | 10c | 4,997$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,963$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e54…80eabacked Yes | 10c | 4,960$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 11c | 4,671$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…8f87backed Yes | 15c | 4,560$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…f4e2backed Yes | 11c | 4,538$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 13c | 4,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…3f23backed Yes | 2c | 4,278$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 13c | 4,200$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.52 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…e286backed Yes | 9c | 4,200$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705a…9d48backed Yes | 13c | 3,909$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…c961backed Yes | 4c | 3,678$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…783fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,675$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 15c | 3,583$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…4643backed Yes | 15c | 3,548$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed Yes | 12c | 3,447$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…4208backed Yes | 1c | 3,346$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…013ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,128$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…dc4dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,963$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…5604backed Yes | 6c | 2,900$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…1b1cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,823$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…6770backed Yes | 16c | 2,789$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,780$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.81 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes | 14c | 2,700$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 13c | 2,692$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,649$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 14c | 2,647$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.58 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 13c | 2,518$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 11c | 2,502$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…636dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,494$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 18c | 2,321$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed Yes | 13c | 2,308$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba02…b1b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,283$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…9919backed Yes | 4c | 2,277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaf…a12fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,263$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…bd2cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,230$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 13c | 2,200$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,173$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…5c6dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,168$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a57cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,163$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.