TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,465,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,976,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,465,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 588 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes6c145,996$9,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,216.911419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3787…c451backed Yes16c137,536$22,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,090.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes14c85,000$11,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,647.963228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaf…4513backed Yes10c80,501$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes13c68,293$8,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,679.9316943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes13c68,172$9,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,177.58911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-84.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5843…1e89backed Yes13c52,596$6,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,796.42425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-49.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c47,641$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.4733313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc61…bee4backed Yes11c43,477$4,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,604.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe647…f838backed Yes13c43,302$5,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,719.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc6…c974backed Yes14c33,295$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes14c30,032$4,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,204.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes8c30,000$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes11c25,442$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.43540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes14c24,689$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4002055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes6c24,400$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.9969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes13c23,961$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2003020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes4c23,156$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.223013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes8c20,500$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.3540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+111%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes12c19,380$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.712626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cec…2da4backed Yes13c19,016$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes10c15,308$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.944630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes11c15,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7002245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes12c14,784$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.935928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes13c13,975$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.316021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a54…f60bbacked Yes11c11,835$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2485…0006backed Yes9c10,932$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4150…3ee7backed Yes12c10,433$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1058…b79cbacked Yes16c9,859$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c7,900$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23212910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes8c7,880$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.821020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes4c7,684$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.929129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes14c7,504$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.141711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cae…cd4dbacked Yes13c7,483$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5951…2a4dbacked Yes8c7,409$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes13c7,376$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96015332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5226…b4f5backed Yes3c7,295$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.17180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e6…f4c6backed Yes14c7,036$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes7c6,710$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.91315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69da…f98cbacked Yes15c6,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes16c6,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9401414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes11c6,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6304818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e04…9d98backed Yes13c5,933$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf74d…557cbacked Yes9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef5…dbe2backed Yes20c5,551$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x565e…6a77backed Yes2c5,215$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d06…addabacked Yes15c5,019$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c5,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1f2…bbc2backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb171…8fa9backed Yes10c4,997$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c4,963$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e54…80eabacked Yes10c4,960$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes11c4,671$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.7660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e46…8f87backed Yes15c4,560$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.5660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd205…f4e2backed Yes11c4,538$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes13c4,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…3f23backed Yes2c4,278$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes13c4,200$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.52234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9e…e286backed Yes9c4,200$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3581225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed Yes13c4,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x705a…9d48backed Yes13c3,909$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x458c…c961backed Yes4c3,678$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9601…783fbacked Yes11c3,675$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes15c3,583$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.621118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a7…4643backed Yes15c3,548$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9be…fe74backed Yes12c3,447$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…4208backed Yes1c3,346$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3688…013ebacked Yes12c3,128$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270140%0 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaca3…cb95backed Yes2c3,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dfc…dc4dbacked Yes15c2,963$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae6…5604backed Yes6c2,900$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.61020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…1b1cbacked Yes14c2,823$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3851323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…6770backed Yes16c2,789$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes9c2,780$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.815514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes14c2,700$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed Yes13c2,692$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x706f…605fbacked Yes13c2,649$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.67520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes14c2,647$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.584814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes13c2,518$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3216119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes11c2,502$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1915924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454e…636dbacked Yes4c2,494$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes18c2,321$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes13c2,308$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba02…b1b2backed Yes10c2,283$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…9919backed Yes4c2,277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccaf…a12fbacked Yes11c2,263$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35b2…bd2cbacked Yes9c2,230$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.71127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001070%7 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+107.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked Yes13c2,200$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes5c2,173$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e90…5c6dbacked Yes10c2,168$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443f…a57cbacked Yes14c2,163$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.