AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff56e71c509fc0ce0ea872f9b1929bffd2530cb2e109944ffd34f48a9f918dbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $285,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 1c | 13,548$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 6c | 11,285$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.97 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…e5a4backed Yes | 0c | 11,214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 38c | 8,063$3,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 7,994$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.52 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 29c | 7,268$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.24 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 45c | 5,770$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,284$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 0c | 5,214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 3,101$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 46c | 3,057$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 3c | 1,955$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 7c | 1,933$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 3c | 1,718$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 30c | 1,595$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 20c | 1,288$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.09 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes | 30c | 1,189$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…2139backed Yes | 1c | 1,158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…372cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,096$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 21c | 1,057$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…da88backed Yes | 35c | 1,031$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 8c | 937.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 44c | 865.49$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.61 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 1c | 840.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 789.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…fecdbacked Yes | 44c | 710.14$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 4c | 650$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 2c | 632.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 49c | 608$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes | 18c | 603.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 4c | 591$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 77c | 545.39$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…cca7backed Yes | 2c | 511$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 42c | 476.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 422.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…ab65backed Yes | 48c | 416.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes | 28c | 392.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 24c | 389.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 293.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…54e6backed Yes | 6c | 289.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 26c | 284.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…8be9backed Yes | 37c | 272.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 243.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf5…55d0backed Yes | 9c | 233$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 18c | 227$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…04b4backed Yes | 31c | 222.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 20c | 219.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Yes | 49c | 204.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…c848backed Yes | 43c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 34c | 195.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 50c | 189.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 186$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcf…76e3backed Yes | 8c | 156.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed Yes | 32c | 148.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 17c | 144.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…35c4backed Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 139.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 9c | 112.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 50c | 102.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…be51backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5162…736fbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…b9cbbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…6975backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9d…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…7516backed No | 67c | 93.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…d68dbacked Yes | 17c | 90.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 65c | 84.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…1d7cbacked Yes | 51c | 77.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed Yes | 51c | 76.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…e532backed Yes | 46c | 71.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…5cb0backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…512abacked Yes | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 34c | 56.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…4bc4backed Yes | 30c | 50.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…0190backed Yes | 51c | 49.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 47.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…4ed2backed Yes | 42c | 47.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…d060backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 58c | 38.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…ac64backed Yes | 40c | 37.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 52c | 37.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…0f77backed Yes | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b4…44c1backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…38f8backed Yes | 51c | 29.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…c165backed Yes | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…f951backed Yes | 39c | 27.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…4224backed Yes | 38c | 26.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…5690backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.