TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$321,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$340,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,847 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f7d…111cbacked Yes35c55,322$19,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,959.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb22…f95bbacked No65c55,322$35,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,959.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8e…c16abacked No37c27,217$10,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,070.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc2…3092backed Yes63c27,217$17,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,070.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes65c11,031$7,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,887.47757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No9c7,529$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No16c7,154$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.014020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No3c5,247$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.718220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c4,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes74c2,043$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.3211030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No50c1,854$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.872147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes55c1,516$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.982142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No47c1,498$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.424315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8465…8e31backed Yes56c1,430$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed No6c1,394$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.431040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf3…d72cbacked No7c1,328$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No16c1,032$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.182560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No16c1,018$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.112110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes52c1,000$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.671020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes44c999.98$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed Yes70c994.01$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No5c833.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.26695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c818$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7364…d44ebacked Yes76c747.88$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No4c662.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.069041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes47c614.87$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.043145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…74fdbacked Yes70c574.94$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.741338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1438…1c4abacked Yes72c543.37$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b0…f9a8backed No30c476.76$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes72c450$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes76c367.11$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.532416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes31c362.54$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.151323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes63c318.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe164…e1b9backed Yes67c311.67$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x431d…8fdebacked Yes52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.37024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes78c300$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1939…0f41backed Yes53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes59c285$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.163231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Yes74c269.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…7737backed Yes70c266.11$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c250.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.441,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No5c249.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes75c227$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…6306backed Yes55c216.57$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Yes52c203.58$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed1…3b38backed Yes56c177.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13a8…c77bbacked No9c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick43cpaid-83.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes67c149.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.191154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9308…e2f5backed No25c139.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3980%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb18d…ae49backed Yes74c135.22$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes38c134.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.82728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c123.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7be6…a8bcbacked Yes65c123.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67db…21adbacked Yes53c117.84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked No50c112.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.65425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38f7…b96ebacked No23c107.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No47c99.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.312937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c98.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes52c95.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b2…094ebacked Yes68c92.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No56c91.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.533828.9%11 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba3b…eea1backed Yes59c84.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.61825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+356.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8bb…fb99backed Yes74c81.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.146659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cc1…ca19backed No24c79.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f94…1a19backed Yes68c75.59$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb4…f8dabacked Yes67c74.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb237…9e07backed No16c72.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…da90backed Yes66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a79…8e05backed Yes56c69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20b0…f22ebacked No38c64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…b548backed Yes78c63.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…8e99backed No39c58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes62c56.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54db…14a4backed Yes78c51.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ae4…2de4backed Yes49c51.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc8…0235backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9741…4573backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x799d…20fbbacked No48c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…1c53backed Yes66c40.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x829e…7f0abacked Yes69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9020…f183backed Yes61c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd625…ab98backed Yes61c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8773…c213backed Yes55c36.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0543…c839backed Yes55c36.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes43c36.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ed…4c77backed Yes59c33.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f87…1c1abacked Yes64c31.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x290e…b1eebacked Yes69c28.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.94955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e21…3d08backed Yes67c28.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78be…20a3backed Yes71c28.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No46c28.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8928828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4552…0333backed No55c27.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f56…6716backed Yes67c26.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…727fbacked Yes77c26.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6279…fb37backed Yes78c25.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4da…cf3bbacked Yes68c21.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.