AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bf9552fbb1326de216ead44e95d8356fd15905bf094d571d1b5f5f4a9ec5e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $321,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7d…111cbacked Yes | 35c | 55,322$19,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,959.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…f95bbacked No | 65c | 55,322$35,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,959.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…c16abacked No | 37c | 27,217$10,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,070.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…3092backed Yes | 63c | 27,217$17,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,070.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 65c | 11,031$7,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,887.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 9c | 7,529$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 16c | 7,154$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.01 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 5,247$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 4,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 74c | 2,043$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.32 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 50c | 1,854$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 55c | 1,516$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 47c | 1,498$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.4 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…8e31backed Yes | 56c | 1,430$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed No | 6c | 1,394$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf3…d72cbacked No | 7c | 1,328$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 16c | 1,032$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 16c | 1,018$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed Yes | 44c | 999.98$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 70c | 994.01$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 833.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 818$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked Yes | 76c | 747.88$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 4c | 662.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 47c | 614.87$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.04 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 70c | 574.94$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…1c4abacked Yes | 72c | 543.37$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 30c | 476.76$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes | 72c | 450$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 76c | 367.11$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 31c | 362.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 63c | 318.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…e1b9backed Yes | 67c | 311.67$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…8fdebacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 59c | 285$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Yes | 74c | 269.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…7737backed Yes | 70c | 266.11$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 250.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 5c | 249.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 75c | 227$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…6306backed Yes | 55c | 216.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Yes | 52c | 203.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…3b38backed Yes | 56c | 177.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked No | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 67c | 149.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed No | 25c | 139.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…ae49backed Yes | 74c | 135.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 38c | 134.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 123.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…a8bcbacked Yes | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 53c | 117.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 50c | 112.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked No | 23c | 107.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 98.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 52c | 95.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…094ebacked Yes | 68c | 92.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 56c | 91.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…eea1backed Yes | 59c | 84.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +356.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…fb99backed Yes | 74c | 81.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed No | 24c | 79.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f94…1a19backed Yes | 68c | 75.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…f8dabacked Yes | 67c | 74.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…9e07backed No | 16c | 72.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…8e05backed Yes | 56c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…f22ebacked No | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…b548backed Yes | 78c | 63.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…8e99backed No | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 62c | 56.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…14a4backed Yes | 78c | 51.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae4…2de4backed Yes | 49c | 51.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc8…0235backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799d…20fbbacked No | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…1c53backed Yes | 66c | 40.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…7f0abacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…f183backed Yes | 61c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd625…ab98backed Yes | 61c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…c213backed Yes | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0543…c839backed Yes | 55c | 36.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 43c | 36.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…4c77backed Yes | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f87…1c1abacked Yes | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…b1eebacked Yes | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e21…3d08backed Yes | 67c | 28.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78be…20a3backed Yes | 71c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 46c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 55c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…6716backed Yes | 67c | 26.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…727fbacked Yes | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6279…fb37backed Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked Yes | 68c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.