AI · resolved market
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a876de176fe0841a9bc9209f275fb39c7f9613321d28176aeb82dc64058f2a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,768,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,768,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85e7…c43dbacked Yes | 0c | 85,276$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…b180backed Yes | 0c | 42,110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea70…bea8backed Yes | 0c | 39,638$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…204abacked Yes | 0c | 38,501$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 34,190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…501abacked Yes | 0c | 27,865$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…df86backed Yes | 0c | 25,555$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…879bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…26acbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…0d3bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…1ce9backed Yes | 0c | 23,690$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…7f97backed Yes | 0c | 23,490$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…e3f9backed Yes | 0c | 23,410$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f67…66fdbacked Yes | 0c | 23,370$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2391…c931backed Yes | 0c | 23,350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…a242backed Yes | 0c | 23,270$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…0c39backed Yes | 0c | 23,240$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…1b93backed Yes | 0c | 23,160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…ac25backed Yes | 0c | 23,130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…0146backed Yes | 0c | 23,120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…c7b1backed Yes | 0c | 23,010$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4d…908abacked Yes | 0c | 22,990$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…981abacked Yes | 0c | 22,970$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…5eb9backed Yes | 0c | 22,960$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…123ebacked Yes | 0c | 22,960$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…4bc9backed Yes | 0c | 22,960$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…21d0backed Yes | 0c | 22,940$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a79…3f15backed Yes | 0c | 22,890$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf611…3fffbacked Yes | 0c | 22,860$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…f544backed Yes | 0c | 22,730$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…babfbacked Yes | 0c | 22,730$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa298…0228backed Yes | 0c | 22,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d20…fdbbbacked Yes | 0c | 22,640$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…a7fabacked Yes | 0c | 22,610$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5237…5268backed Yes | 0c | 22,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fa…b8edbacked Yes | 0c | 22,540$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd9…d1c9backed Yes | 0c | 22,520$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…097cbacked Yes | 0c | 22,480$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…cd36backed Yes | 0c | 22,460$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…9ab0backed Yes | 0c | 22,450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…5f05backed Yes | 0c | 22,410$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…fe43backed Yes | 0c | 22,360$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…eb31backed Yes | 0c | 22,270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…bf9fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…26debacked Yes | 0c | 22,160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…cf34backed Yes | 0c | 21,880$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f271backed Yes | 0c | 21,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…bb36backed Yes | 0c | 21,480$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…3f74backed Yes | 0c | 21,290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc982…f4bfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,880$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…f343backed Yes | 0c | 20,210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…f28abacked Yes | 0c | 19,980$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 18,343$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…7ca6backed Yes | 0c | 16,150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 0c | 13,768$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799a…dc58backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.