AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe925382e02481897ef171100d04cb6f6d1d3af0ca480c9508cdd6168af4e3fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 6,968$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.29 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 3c | 6,535$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.96 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 6c | 4,028$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,345$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 4c | 3,073$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 1c | 2,952$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 2,743$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 4c | 2,509$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 1,885$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 2c | 1,628$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 20c | 1,581$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.03 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,580$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 1,517$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 5c | 1,425$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,407$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 6c | 1,192$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,168$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 8c | 1,053$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…6b44backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Yes | 15c | 994.83$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…6b29backed Yes | 5c | 977.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 6c | 892.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 3c | 877$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes | 1c | 819.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 3c | 667.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 614$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 609.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 6c | 541.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 535.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…7996backed Yes | 3c | 419.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 6c | 416$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 5c | 402.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 5c | 310$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8b…7a34backed Yes | 4c | 240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…0cc8backed Yes | 8c | 170$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…0065backed Yes | 8c | 148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 19c | 72.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.