AI · resolved market
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b84d278587f34c230bb09b4d615c91979e03d9ed0b0300672ad3cef1643b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,718,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,718,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85e7…c43dbacked Yes | 0c | 110,816$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…7ca6backed Yes | 0c | 57,420$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…204abacked Yes | 0c | 37,345$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ec…4ac8backed Yes | 0c | 37,320$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…bd99backed Yes | 0c | 37,319$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…6a24backed Yes | 0c | 37,319$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…bf6bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,315$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cd…a96ebacked Yes | 0c | 37,310$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…00afbacked Yes | 0c | 37,304$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7421…5214backed Yes | 0c | 37,288$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…4248backed Yes | 0c | 37,283$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 0c | 37,277$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773f…d305backed Yes | 0c | 37,265$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa398…0f69backed Yes | 0c | 37,230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…3ddcbacked Yes | 0c | 37,188$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…479fbacked Yes | 0c | 37,111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…73bcbacked Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…a48dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…9f65backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…7c6fbacked Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…2fb5backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…161cbacked Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…7277backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…066fbacked Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefba…7c05backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931d…4e30backed Yes | 0c | 36,999$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…b63cbacked Yes | 0c | 36,888$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b76…8ea4backed Yes | 0c | 36,888$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…ce0bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,886$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…a213backed Yes | 0c | 36,777$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…58febacked Yes | 0c | 36,775$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…1daabacked Yes | 0c | 36,666$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4675…e53cbacked Yes | 0c | 36,666$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…2d7dbacked Yes | 0c | 36,555$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…b594backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…7620backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…4524backed Yes | 0c | 33,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea70…bea8backed Yes | 0c | 30,490$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…15a3backed Yes | 0c | 29,910$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…b180backed Yes | 0c | 26,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…3f3ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 24,510$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 18,239$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…cca7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.