TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,325,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,341,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,325,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8025…fce2backed No57c81,233$46,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,029.691625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No38c52,821$20,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,330.435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No50c40,840$20,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,558.645834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes58c36,806$21,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,517.7911541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No40c31,475$12,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,529.9110055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eba…6295backed Yes72c28,460$20,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,891.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No37c28,377$10,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,606.075641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9be…1d98backed Yes24c26,499$6,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,174.14475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+149.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes53c26,364$13,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,401.59666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa228…fbbfbacked No2c23,342$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No40c22,356$8,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,887.533930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No44c21,902$9,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,669.5716854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No45c20,108$8,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,951.445756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes61c16,324$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes36c16,246$5,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,381.0323639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No44c15,374$6,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,772.562437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes63c15,242$9,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.792245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes28c15,065$4,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,780.12913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No62c14,631$9,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,075.214052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No35c14,355$5,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,080.353132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c5…a736backed Yes59c14,332$8,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,855.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No6c13,312$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.5811031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeca…9826backed Yes70c13,244$9,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,913.281533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No56c12,850$7,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,215.568453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes59c12,315$7,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,040.289533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf0…7d13backed Yes19c11,723$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,473.39540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+110.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc109…1ad2backed Yes20c11,571$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,262.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick33cpaid+165.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes44c11,387$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,359.864729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No16c11,007$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.073333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c10,824$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…8070backed No0c10,430$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No65c9,651$6,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,267.575442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed No45c9,501$4,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,247.092227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes66c9,060$5,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,105.82360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes63c8,891$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.162536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x199d…589abacked Yes76c8,506$6,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.94742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…2884backed Yes67c8,244$5,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,717.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes68c8,070$5,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.741540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes64c8,061$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.182626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes32c7,944$2,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,387.1216943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a76…2dfebacked Yes67c7,424$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60eb…4949backed Yes50c7,090$3,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.87825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed No30c6,922$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.993732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes31c6,575$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,519.08540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed No43c6,500$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked Yes24c6,148$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,659.87785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.52per pick34cpaid+216.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7edb…e741backed Yes64c6,000$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9287…8556backed Yes60c5,593$3,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.22812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No47c5,438$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.824143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes60c5,385$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed No35c5,012$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.981553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes54c4,990$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,295.4850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3f…d57ebacked No40c4,967$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…741bbacked Yes60c4,965$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No44c4,707$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.2215155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7982…4f05backed Yes74c4,513$3,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No42c4,477$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.218143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Yes61c4,451$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No15c4,363$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.7515124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No37c4,206$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.918219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…cee6backed Yes22c4,200$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+121.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No51c4,185$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.3313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No32c4,152$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.5313525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No43c4,012$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.9496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e8…4da7backed Yes64c3,894$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No31c3,877$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.116033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96fc…457abacked Yes77c3,853$2,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.21911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes19c3,812$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.1315332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed Yes39c3,732$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,288.111741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbbc…e74ebacked No48c3,690$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe767…f8a9backed Yes73c3,651$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes22c3,525$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.122015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes22c3,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.9812910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed No53c3,416$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.23212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No33c3,384$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.448547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…ed88backed Yes38c3,367$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfef…77c0backed Yes76c3,294$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+73.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No63c3,229$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.943959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa04e…5ce8backed Yes70c3,218$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes64c3,112$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.842040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes43c3,055$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.252937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x240e…e8aabacked Yes60c3,000$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x317e…37eabacked No30c2,994$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-75.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x488d…3a89backed Yes58c2,937$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes30c2,882$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.851442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a17…2a89backed Yes35c2,863$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda84…ac44backed Yes48c2,757$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2803…0dd7backed No32c2,730$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No45c2,686$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.723540%14 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No46c2,631$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.0915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed No38c2,627$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No70c2,561$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.953531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda26…4386backed Yes78c2,551$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.64540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x341c…8eaebacked No46c2,545$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.292035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2501330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a69…b592backed Yes71c2,500$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…4699backed Yes19c2,500$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.991442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+84.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No49c2,479$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.62842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes67c2,450$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.993438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.