Us Politics · resolved market
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd2a039b83b68941d2c7a07978ab90fa4c436350330b02ab6b96de9b4dadf33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,325,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,341,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,325,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8025…fce2backed No | 57c | 81,233$46,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,029.69 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 38c | 52,821$20,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,330.4 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 50c | 40,840$20,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,558.64 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 58c | 36,806$21,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,517.79 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 40c | 31,475$12,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,529.91 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…6295backed Yes | 72c | 28,460$20,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,891.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 37c | 28,377$10,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,606.07 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9be…1d98backed Yes | 24c | 26,499$6,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,174.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 53c | 26,364$13,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,401.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked No | 2c | 23,342$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 40c | 22,356$8,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,887.53 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 44c | 21,902$9,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,669.57 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 45c | 20,108$8,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,951.44 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes | 61c | 16,324$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,324.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 36c | 16,246$5,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,381.03 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 44c | 15,374$6,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,772.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 63c | 15,242$9,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 28c | 15,065$4,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,780.1 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 62c | 14,631$9,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,075.21 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 35c | 14,355$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…a736backed Yes | 59c | 14,332$8,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,855.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 6c | 13,312$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.58 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 70c | 13,244$9,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,913.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 56c | 12,850$7,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,215.56 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 59c | 12,315$7,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040.28 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…7d13backed Yes | 19c | 11,723$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,473.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…1ad2backed Yes | 20c | 11,571$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,262.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 44c | 11,387$5,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359.86 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 16c | 11,007$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.07 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 10,824$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…8070backed No | 0c | 10,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 65c | 9,651$6,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,267.57 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 45c | 9,501$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,247.09 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 66c | 9,060$5,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 63c | 8,891$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…589abacked Yes | 76c | 8,506$6,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…2884backed Yes | 67c | 8,244$5,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 68c | 8,070$5,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 64c | 8,061$5,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 32c | 7,944$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,387.12 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…2dfebacked Yes | 67c | 7,424$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 50c | 7,090$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 30c | 6,922$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 31c | 6,575$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 43c | 6,500$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 24c | 6,148$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,659.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.52per pick | 34cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…e741backed Yes | 64c | 6,000$3,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…8556backed Yes | 60c | 5,593$3,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 47c | 5,438$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…7ec3backed Yes | 60c | 5,385$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 35c | 5,012$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 54c | 4,990$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…d57ebacked No | 40c | 4,967$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…741bbacked Yes | 60c | 4,965$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 44c | 4,707$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.22 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…4f05backed Yes | 74c | 4,513$3,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 42c | 4,477$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.21 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 61c | 4,451$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 15c | 4,363$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.75 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 37c | 4,206$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.91 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 22c | 4,200$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 51c | 4,185$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.33 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 32c | 4,152$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.53 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 4,012$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.94 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…4da7backed Yes | 64c | 3,894$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 31c | 3,877$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.11 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…457abacked Yes | 77c | 3,853$2,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 19c | 3,812$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.13 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed Yes | 39c | 3,732$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked No | 48c | 3,690$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe767…f8a9backed Yes | 73c | 3,651$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 22c | 3,525$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 22c | 3,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.98 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 53c | 3,416$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.2 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 33c | 3,384$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.44 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ed88backed Yes | 38c | 3,367$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…77c0backed Yes | 76c | 3,294$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 63c | 3,229$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.94 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…5ce8backed Yes | 70c | 3,218$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 64c | 3,112$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 43c | 3,055$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 60c | 3,000$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…37eabacked No | 30c | 2,994$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…3a89backed Yes | 58c | 2,937$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 2,882$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…2a89backed Yes | 35c | 2,863$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda84…ac44backed Yes | 48c | 2,757$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed No | 32c | 2,730$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 45c | 2,686$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 46c | 2,631$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.09 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed No | 38c | 2,627$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed No | 70c | 2,561$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.95 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…4386backed Yes | 78c | 2,551$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked No | 46c | 2,545$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a69…b592backed Yes | 71c | 2,500$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4699backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 49c | 2,479$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 67c | 2,450$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.99 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.