World Politics · resolved market
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f355a4e8495e6772e35d1f3e3e76290b4945be4a0f7770be5c2e120c94ecb52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $259,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23cc…064bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,403$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…1339backed Yes | 5c | 20,812$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 17,148$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…b09dbacked Yes | 7c | 9,733$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…98ebbacked Yes | 5c | 7,181$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab55…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 6,388$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,935$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 0c | 5,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7b7dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,679$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,548$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb322…db0cbacked Yes | 49c | 2,019$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…60acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0772…1af9backed Yes | 1c | 1,739$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 15c | 1,400$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.85 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 1c | 1,380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…9446backed No | 73c | 1,345$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…a77dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,167$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8065…b925backed Yes | 1c | 1,146$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…86e4backed Yes | 9c | 1,119$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…fc9cbacked Yes | 9c | 891.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 876.72$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 9c | 848.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…a167backed Yes | 11c | 793.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 786.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a0…be53backed Yes | 25c | 777.9$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 744.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…cc54backed Yes | 40c | 687.88$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…09febacked Yes | 11c | 641.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 640$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 548.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 18c | 460.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…41f0backed Yes | 40c | 402.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 395.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 339.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 32c | 266.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8039…14c4backed Yes | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa934…c6fabacked Yes | 17c | 230.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 226.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6846…f344backed Yes | 18c | 221.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 182.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 64c | 150.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 148$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 18c | 142.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…21dabacked No | 71c | 70.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…e7c1backed No | 74c | 67.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…669dbacked Yes | 34c | 63.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…1d55backed No | 80c | 55.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 41.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255d…1f3dbacked Yes | 43c | 36.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…c1f0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed No | 71c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…f088backed No | 69c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.