World Politics · resolved market
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9867332300ff861a385543eef980b97369107736d751d3542ba92caf6b231e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2afd…deb0backed No | 4c | 44,368$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.23 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…1470backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…0797backed No | 6c | 4,968$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc309…2298backed No | 3c | 4,686$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…6736backed No | 3c | 3,340$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 4c | 1,435$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…42c6backed No | 4c | 1,322$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,244$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 4c | 1,002$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 2c | 818.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…861bbacked No | 3c | 700.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…9ce0backed No | 3c | 639.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…93b3backed No | 3c | 505$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 3c | 499.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310b…31dbbacked No | 3c | 342$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed No | 4c | 305.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…476dbacked No | 4c | 260.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 4 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.