World Politics · resolved market
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02b8bf477306fbfbbd2e7d2f72c319162666383de3857f9b8218ecfa1beb4e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 5,079$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb0backed Yes | 1c | 4,402$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…6736backed Yes | 2c | 4,225$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fb…2c13backed Yes | 3c | 3,501$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…cad8backed Yes | 1c | 3,108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…fcb6backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24b…bddfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,935$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…dababacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…9ce0backed Yes | 1c | 1,449$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…5287backed Yes | 1c | 1,343$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12eb…b79fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 2c | 1,074$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…dda3backed Yes | 1c | 1,049$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54cb…e457backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…7476backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…0298backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 3c | 876.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…63bebacked Yes | 1c | 847.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…861bbacked Yes | 2c | 700.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…1dccbacked Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…3bcbbacked Yes | 2c | 659.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 2c | 547$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2351…9a98backed Yes | 3c | 409$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcab…9c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 4 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.