AI · resolved market
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6cb545b027725b320e351d06b6923a68033daa42696c5a36091adf6d8e4c38d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $574,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $259,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $574,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 174,092$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 0c | 60,086$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 41,814$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 0c | 35,424$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 28,837$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…8304backed Yes | 0c | 15,359$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fa…33dfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,517$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,621$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 0c | 10,387$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 0c | 9,714$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 0c | 5,021$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…5decbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…5f56backed Yes | 1c | 4,170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…72ffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,956$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 1,636$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…7472backed Yes | 2c | 854$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.