World Politics · resolved market
Will Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x979733a80f1e37a6c5fdee7e3d810496bd3e46949fffad0d5bc770ee5be3feb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 38c | 3,481$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.79 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 37c | 2,609$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.14 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 55c | 1,513$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.18 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…d1e2backed Yes | 63c | 1,071$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 34c | 832.16$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.84 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 657.05$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.81 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 63c | 566$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.58 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes | 60c | 454.21$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 60c | 381.93$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.66 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 56c | 381$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.19 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 65c | 374.11$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.07 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 37c | 346.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.07 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 39c | 311.1$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 65c | 309.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 60c | 302.65$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 65c | 298.46$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 293.57$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…52edbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…a653backed No | 61c | 225.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…906fbacked Yes | 39c | 225.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…06a2backed Yes | 65c | 206.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 41c | 187.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 177.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 39c | 165.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 11c | 159.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 37c | 155.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed Yes | 65c | 154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 66c | 151.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 41c | 138.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 45c | 119.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…14b0backed Yes | 42c | 95.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 45c | 77.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 37c | 66.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…4d98backed Yes | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 38c | 52.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed Yes | 64c | 42.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd378…f282backed No | 39c | 40.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…b339backed Yes | 55c | 34.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 66c | 34.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 41c | 31.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…c999backed Yes | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f8…7446backed Yes | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 65c | 24.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…1bc3backed Yes | 48c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…bf13backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…0ac7backed Yes | 65c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…3dbebacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?this page
- Will APB Súmate win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will MAS-IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.