World Politics · resolved market
Will Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c83819087bcf67ff18b58b2e547ccd80830e742ad56b9b5697c9a7837a85629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 38c | 1,513$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.04 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 69c | 664.08$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 52c | 503.07$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.91 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 48c | 492.97$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.4 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 25c | 383.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 32c | 381.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 31c | 374.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 70c | 307$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 30c | 302.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 37c | 267.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 56c | 248.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 30c | 113.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 109.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccfb…70efbacked Yes | 57c | 72.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 29c | 68.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…eeecbacked Yes | 50c | 40.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…d436backed No | 41c | 37.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 71c | 36.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 36.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 33c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?this page
- Will APB Súmate win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will MAS-IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?No won
- Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?Yes won
- Will Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.