TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$426,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$317,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes30c29,170$8,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,857.46546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No70c26,777$18,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,141.4335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d64…4073backed Yes3c25,938$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes2c19,887$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.282142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes16c14,026$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes3c13,023$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3648725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf459…a5c8backed Yes3c11,526$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.671643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes6c11,492$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.4240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5712…c795backed Yes5c10,968$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9713…313ebacked Yes1c10,429$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf206…8cf6backed Yes3c8,670$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.152138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes1c7,400$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.355743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes0c7,314$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.262078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes3c6,746$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes1c4,700$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes4c4,546$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes3c3,754$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1036832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes1c3,663$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.717610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…6548backed Yes3c3,591$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes1c3,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9817530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x372b…2edabacked Yes3c3,353$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1373…1d26backed Yes1c3,144$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes1c3,019$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes1c3,012$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes1c2,819$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes3c2,582$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.81128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…b2ccbacked Yes3c2,422$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c2,200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7142120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No71c2,161$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.8610150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b94…951abacked Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes20c2,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3905141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes5c1,570$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.513228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4881…540bbacked Yes2c1,526$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c1,185$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.98663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…6968backed Yes2c1,175$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes15c1,090$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.343036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes7c1,073$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…8699backed Yes1c1,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes3c1,012$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes12c989$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.18944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes1c969.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes8c937.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes5c895.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.436637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f91…42bbbacked Yes3c833.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5972…32e6backed Yes1c812.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+46.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6cc…6771backed Yes23c796.1$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348b…33fdbacked Yes2c770$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4850%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes14c674.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.58647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes6c666.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b59…ba17backed Yes2c625.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes16c600$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55f5…a628backed Yes3c554$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2dc…f9d3backed Yes3c539.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22d…ea45backed Yes13c503.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.71020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-71.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9533…eedabacked Yes6c500.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes19c484.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.034537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c468$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbc3…b89ebacked Yes4c467.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc08c…68fdbacked Yes7c459.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1932…aab5backed Yes3c458.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes4c457.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc520…7661backed Yes4c448$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No77c422.84$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.254126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed Yes4c375.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes16c361$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7619930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b1…e62cbacked Yes4c356.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes9c337.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.348037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ef…3040backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb3e…36f3backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes32c326$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3216743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5211…632cbacked Yes3c316.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ea…a2eebacked Yes3c303.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes5c294.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+98.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf2…e969backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eeb…2965backed Yes5c283.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+170.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes17c270$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.94628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes15c264.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc0…4410backed Yes5c253.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes20c250.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0118151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c83…8a22backed Yes29c180$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.211255.4%62 W · 50 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No55c174.67$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.68250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes26c160.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94cd…0eeebacked Yes19c132$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c131.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d4…c2acbacked No68c129.69$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.245100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+181.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4500…eb2dbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes19c125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.756254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.310464.4%67 W · 37 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes15c103.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.173228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x477c…9cbabacked Yes21c97.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c92.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes20c86.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.257040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8316651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes15c65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.