World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa24dd3e673c9f90c7a76b2e96dbec99d7a37b2486a736d38160059e8ca15c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $614,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $691,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $614,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 22c | 18,165$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,190.44 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 13,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 10,416$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 35c | 10,200$3,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,643.54 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 24c | 9,671$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,336.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 24c | 8,185$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,237.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 6,963$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,206.82 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes | 23c | 6,826$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,282.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 22c | 6,454$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,026.53 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 32c | 6,384$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.14 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 31c | 5,780$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.2 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,215$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.76 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 3,166$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 79c | 3,100$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.23 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…f57dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,411$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 20c | 2,400$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.99 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 2,326$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.82 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 27c | 2,322$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.41 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 36c | 2,260$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 26c | 2,234$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 21c | 2,077$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.66 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…38edbacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 1,974$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.53 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 20c | 1,800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 38c | 1,759$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.68 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 21c | 1,700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed Yes | 54c | 1,671$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…87a8backed Yes | 30c | 1,600$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 25c | 1,590$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 39c | 1,567$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,557$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.57 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 20c | 1,552$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.18 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,516$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 26c | 1,506$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.42 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 37c | 1,266$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.55 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 36c | 1,204$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 22c | 1,109$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.25 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,030$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.39 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…af6ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,021$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 23c | 961.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.09 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 923.13$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.3 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 863.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…d42ebacked Yes | 34c | 827.1$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 25c | 793.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 743.84$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.71 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 22c | 732.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.23 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…cb7ebacked Yes | 35c | 701.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 24c | 700$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 689.81$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.81 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 30c | 680.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.98 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 67c | 674.91$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 650$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.5 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 630.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.34 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 64c | 616.62$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.22 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 25c | 583.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.97 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 564.86$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.99 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 533.88$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…0ea4backed Yes | 20c | 495.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 24c | 444$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.44 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 416.57$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.37 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 30c | 411.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.61 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 24c | 388.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 66c | 365$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 363.76$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.39 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…14cebacked Yes | 48c | 363.47$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 22c | 351.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.64 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…7623backed Yes | 63c | 342.39$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 76c | 323.34$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0cf7backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…e126backed Yes | 26c | 234.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 33c | 233.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.29 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 224.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…e921backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 22c | 198$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 36c | 171.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 21c | 171$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 160.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…9a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 148.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…5c6ebacked Yes | 37c | 147.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…ca27backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 140.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…181bbacked Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdce…87ddbacked Yes | 27c | 134.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4b…1b91backed Yes | 38c | 121.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 16c | 115.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 106.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.