World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a6698afa34ebc176e1a7b31f5fff0ea300ad5032ff0f4b19c96779f910c7f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,002,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,006,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,002,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 61,248$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 3c | 49,934$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.02 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…82b3backed Yes | 2c | 38,269$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 37,387$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.27 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,608$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 3c | 35,079$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 2c | 21,000$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.73 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…d165backed Yes | 3c | 20,980$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce47…b980backed Yes | 3c | 18,056$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…ab57backed Yes | 5c | 17,468$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…2e4dbacked Yes | 3c | 14,919$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…9a5bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,746$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…bf4ebacked Yes | 3c | 12,038$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 3c | 10,628$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 2c | 9,774$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…df99backed Yes | 4c | 9,610$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…eb1fbacked Yes | 8c | 8,737$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 2c | 8,119$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 8,111$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…4b4bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,987$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…df22backed Yes | 3c | 7,687$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…460bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,354$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…9e98backed Yes | 2c | 7,258$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,057$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 4c | 7,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.12 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…cb3dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,933$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…e203backed Yes | 7c | 6,855$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,346$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…c588backed Yes | 3c | 6,303$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 3c | 5,469$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…f6a4backed Yes | 3c | 5,342$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes | 3c | 5,129$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 2c | 5,081$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…7809backed Yes | 2c | 4,571$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,309$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 4,243$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…bb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,660$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…9a7bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,562$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…dfbabacked Yes | 6c | 3,497$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…aa6fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ceb2backed Yes | 3c | 3,261$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,099$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…5ec7backed Yes | 2c | 3,012$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…9059backed Yes | 2c | 2,931$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,826$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…315ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,730$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f8…5a3cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,616$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…5c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,357$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…7e28backed Yes | 2c | 2,345$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…8534backed Yes | 2c | 2,262$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…8ab9backed Yes | 3c | 2,088$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 2c | 2,073$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…5a8dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,013$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…75fcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,012$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…c826backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…c9eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…b24fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,827$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…fd3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,789$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…f549backed Yes | 1c | 1,689$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf411…4606backed Yes | 2c | 1,663$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…cfa3backed Yes | 2c | 1,613$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…c0ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,585$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 4c | 1,516$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…497fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,369$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…237bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…2e66backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…0594backed Yes | 3c | 1,318$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…c0a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,229$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes | 2c | 1,124$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcd…e126backed Yes | 4c | 1,016$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…6434backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 3c | 989.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…55cebacked Yes | 3c | 970.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…e6d9backed Yes | 2c | 880.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fe…3832backed Yes | 2c | 819.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…310dbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…d363backed Yes | 2c | 725$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…7b25backed Yes | 3c | 719.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…523bbacked Yes | 3c | 555.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…b152backed Yes | 3c | 525.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…67fcbacked Yes | 5c | 516.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…861bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…1fa3backed Yes | 3c | 466.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 3c | 444.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…f30ebacked Yes | 6c | 426.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.