TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$416,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,385 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes10c38,585$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,791.6343243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf056…87a8backed Yes9c14,697$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.65850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7b…5ccebacked Yes15c11,704$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c11,405$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.216883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes7c10,469$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.1410928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes9c10,000$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9352729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes7c8,741$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.8618214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ace…24e2backed Yes16c7,288$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.9670%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c6,930$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.2527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes9c6,666$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.8411428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes11c6,500$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.247238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes12c6,396$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.442055%11 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+70.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes9c6,256$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0414033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes14c6,000$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.565242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes15c5,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.278921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes9c4,979$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes10c4,509$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes14c4,293$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.568025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes6c3,951$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2719623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes8c3,925$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.244766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes13c3,530$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes9c3,126$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.913050%15 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c2,851$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes16c2,828$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.52437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce8…355bbacked Yes15c2,740$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes14c2,590$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes12c2,497$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.625420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b8…f295backed Yes15c2,454$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…e330backed Yes9c2,442$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.682842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes9c2,078$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7913334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes14c2,000$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2817423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28031534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc41…38edbacked Yes10c2,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.031241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes5c1,917$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8616029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes12c1,767$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.028529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes8c1,694$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0525337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaae…907ebacked Yes11c1,550$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes6c1,485$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes5c1,475$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5819027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes7c1,282$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.563432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes8c1,235$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.326038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes13c1,200$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.23132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes14c1,170$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.986040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c1,151$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.741,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes8c1,090$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.321256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes15c1,009$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d13…082cbacked Yes9c985.37$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876035%21 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…64ddbacked Yes7c899.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+143.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes14c700.84$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2614834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe28…e921backed Yes14c624.69$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4bd…6577backed Yes14c619$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes8c600$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4924736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes9c600$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.912630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes9c574.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3310520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes11c509.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.463043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78cf…77e6backed Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.52250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes7c468.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.868328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes5c459.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.23280%0 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes26c445.84$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9418530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes10c444$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.333119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes10c433.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9738023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes5c417.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd533…c8a5backed Yes5c416.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes15c387$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.815424.1%13 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes13c348.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8517524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes6c333.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63930.8%12 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6065…6d3ebacked Yes11c327.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes13c315$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.399423.4%22 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.75132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…aee4backed Yes15c291.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe743…7038backed Yes14c283$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes10c281.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5436742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes8c253.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.74540%18 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes5c238.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1811247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes9c234.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.972138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc164…5fcebacked Yes7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c217.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb0…7b25backed Yes10c198.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes15c166.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f20…c011backed Yes8c139$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8237…fddfbacked Yes8c138$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebfd…dfd0backed Yes9c131.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd220…b167backed Yes9c131$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes10c127.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.348640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2179…2172backed Yes14c126$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-58.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-80.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a30…e7e4backed Yes14c81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb613…d85abacked Yes14c78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0252…29c6backed Yes17c78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a24…aab0backed Yes17c77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b68…d862backed Yes16c76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x630f…76c8backed Yes17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1734…7379backed Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac87…f428backed Yes14c74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1165…9b36backed Yes15c72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…7762backed Yes15c69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.