World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x911d5f6338c0515d0ac5ef8b57d12144569d0afee865025ccffbf5d41c347a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $497,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 79,225$5,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,436.63 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 8c | 21,436$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.66 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 6c | 12,208$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 11,152$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.54 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,245$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…3cd7backed Yes | 8c | 9,885$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes | 6c | 9,697$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce47…b980backed Yes | 6c | 9,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 7c | 7,239$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…c0ffbacked Yes | 8c | 7,095$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…0aa5backed Yes | 6c | 6,995$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 11c | 5,684$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…8ebabacked Yes | 6c | 5,563$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,412$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 9c | 5,283$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,605$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…dfbabacked Yes | 17c | 4,229$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 7c | 3,817$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.68 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 8c | 3,600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…bf4ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,444$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…096ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…8793backed Yes | 7c | 3,145$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…f57dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,026$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 7c | 2,967$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…19f5backed Yes | 8c | 2,525$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,456$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 9c | 2,448$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.02 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…323cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,404$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…df99backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…38edbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fbacbacked Yes | 14c | 1,977$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…75fcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…8e21backed Yes | 6c | 1,716$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…7995backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…d50ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcd…e126backed Yes | 10c | 1,659$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe1…3eedbacked Yes | 6c | 1,650$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,603$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…5743backed Yes | 7c | 1,518$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…9059backed Yes | 6c | 1,469$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…7809backed Yes | 7c | 1,440$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…9a7bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,434$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 6c | 1,432$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…f6a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,355$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,267$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…8ab9backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 17c | 1,235$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…ca8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes | 6c | 1,078$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d59…b909backed Yes | 7c | 1,071$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…5c72backed Yes | 7c | 1,070$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 9c | 985.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +261%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 5c | 959.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 6c | 916.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…315ebacked Yes | 7c | 817.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb0backed Yes | 6c | 800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 15c | 798.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 778.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…f549backed Yes | 6c | 777.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ceb2backed Yes | 7c | 775.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…9e98backed Yes | 7c | 749.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 9c | 729.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 718.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 9c | 672.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 9c | 614.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 600$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 13c | 599.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…88c4backed Yes | 7c | 583.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…55cebacked Yes | 8c | 569.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…fd3abacked Yes | 8c | 553.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…50fbbacked Yes | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…cfa3backed Yes | 7c | 528.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…b152backed Yes | 8c | 475$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 468$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…dfacbacked Yes | 11c | 458.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 5c | 457.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…1940backed Yes | 6c | 435.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…0594backed Yes | 8c | 429.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 11c | 400.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…7b14backed Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 394.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 379.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 369.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 17c | 354.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…2aaabacked Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…79ffbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…8389backed Yes | 7c | 325.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…31f7backed Yes | 7c | 303.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…4b4bbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 7c | 269.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.