World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47076e901478c15188d0f46a928d4ff4b5385496034f4d0dcf83f9166b221346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $402,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 6c | 49,628$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.84 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…5ccebacked Yes | 6c | 18,546$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 3c | 15,297$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.11 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 5c | 14,417$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.93 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 12,106$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.77 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 2c | 10,404$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 8,591$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.79 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 5c | 8,125$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 7c | 7,962$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.07 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 3c | 6,910$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.64 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…24e2backed Yes | 24c | 6,467$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 7c | 5,100$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.11 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 3c | 4,299$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,942$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 6c | 3,798$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,431$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 3,402$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 3,079$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 6c | 3,030$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…0294backed Yes | 8c | 2,713$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked Yes | 7c | 2,100$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…38edbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…64ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,971$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…1052backed Yes | 3c | 1,966$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,946$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,800$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 5c | 1,781$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 1,461$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…096ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,460$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 2c | 1,411$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,385$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 5c | 1,118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 6c | 1,082$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 2c | 973.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 880.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 680.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…23ffbacked Yes | 3c | 676.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 4c | 538.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 4c | 489.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 487.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 5c | 444$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 370.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6065…6d3ebacked Yes | 8c | 355.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 5c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 5c | 338.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…aee4backed Yes | 5c | 267.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…74f9backed Yes | 8c | 264.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 7c | 239.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…f8e0backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 197.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 184$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…2a40backed Yes | 6c | 167$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…1206backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 50c | 114.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.