World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3a89dee3b659822e32f8388f615907ecf262466576f18ecff7619f6d4d6914b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $414,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 77,942$13,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,839.42 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 19c | 23,485$4,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,517.78 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 17c | 12,894$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.15 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…3cd7backed Yes | 17c | 9,669$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…461cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,447$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +568.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…d29ebacked Yes | 17c | 8,144$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 12c | 7,435$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.04 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes | 17c | 7,018$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes | 17c | 5,882$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…c0ffbacked Yes | 18c | 5,782$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 5,321$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.47 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 15c | 4,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 24c | 4,248$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…dfbabacked Yes | 28c | 4,029$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 11c | 4,010$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.81 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 8c | 3,905$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.05 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…8ebabacked Yes | 13c | 3,862$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…f57dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,748$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,740$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 23c | 3,305$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…75fcbacked Yes | 20c | 3,290$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 17c | 2,851$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.73 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…d431backed Yes | 17c | 2,214$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…355bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,180$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…8e21backed Yes | 25c | 2,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…38edbacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 13c | 1,934$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…9a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,885$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,791$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.62 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…31cebacked Yes | 17c | 1,700$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 20c | 1,662$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,636$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.53 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…5fccbacked Yes | 14c | 1,616$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 17c | 1,565$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,422$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.02 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…8793backed Yes | 17c | 1,294$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,220$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,182$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 17c | 1,170$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,135$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.51 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 19c | 1,090$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes | 18c | 1,078$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 23c | 1,060$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +261%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,036$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.95 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,009$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 18c | 909.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 17c | 845.76$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 14c | 792.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5176…bd7bbacked Yes | 20c | 748.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…bf4ebacked Yes | 20c | 724.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…f6a4backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…66bfbacked Yes | 17c | 711.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 17c | 630.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 19c | 626.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 20c | 621.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 25c | 609.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 18c | 576.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 14c | 558.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 556.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed Yes | 19c | 530.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 22c | 500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 32c | 500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 17c | 493.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 16c | 457.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fbacbacked Yes | 25c | 450$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…88c4backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcd…e126backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 18c | 422.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…7b14backed Yes | 18c | 412.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 6c | 371.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…5fbebacked Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 75c | 334$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…bf90backed Yes | 19c | 309.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…55cebacked Yes | 20c | 302.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…ca8dbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…c039backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +104%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…50fbbacked Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 231.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…dfacbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 200.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…af6ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…c7aabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 19c | 199.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…c588backed Yes | 21c | 191.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 191.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 21c | 190.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d59…b909backed Yes | 21c | 187.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 28c | 187.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 177.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.