World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x997f9e486da5e13eeacd4bba90632e01e1596fb36d96dca1ccf293a23674444a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $799,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $799,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce47…b980backed Yes | 4c | 47,359$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 3c | 42,034$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 38,616$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.5 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…323cbacked Yes | 3c | 32,306$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…82b3backed Yes | 4c | 20,719$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…0797backed Yes | 3c | 15,358$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…5dd7backed Yes | 0c | 14,934$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 13,557$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.84 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 4c | 12,727$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…d76bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…1558backed Yes | 0c | 11,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…8235backed Yes | 0c | 11,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…b24cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…eda0backed Yes | 0c | 11,366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…7d7cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…9ae6backed Yes | 0c | 11,366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…73e9backed Yes | 0c | 11,366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 3c | 11,209$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…0aa5backed Yes | 4c | 9,629$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 3c | 9,450$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…c0ffbacked Yes | 4c | 7,339$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.84 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…9a5bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…bf4ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,212$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,063$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.32 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…df99backed Yes | 7c | 6,054$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,136$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,950$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…a249backed Yes | 2c | 4,096$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…7809backed Yes | 5c | 3,865$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcd…e126backed Yes | 4c | 3,737$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 6c | 3,630$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 3,506$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd9…2de2backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…dfbabacked Yes | 14c | 3,495$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…f6a4backed Yes | 4c | 3,393$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 3c | 2,952$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…f57dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,922$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 2,902$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,767$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,767$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…9059backed Yes | 4c | 2,745$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…75fcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,741$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…8ebabacked Yes | 3c | 2,367$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,270$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 3c | 2,250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…8ab9backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…5743backed Yes | 2c | 2,163$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…0594backed Yes | 4c | 2,057$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…9a7bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,050$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5492…9ce9backed Yes | 3c | 2,001$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,951$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d59…b909backed Yes | 2c | 1,821$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…ca8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,767$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…315ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,713$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…55cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,627$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…cfa3backed Yes | 4c | 1,614$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,504$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…f549backed Yes | 3c | 1,498$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…5c72backed Yes | 4c | 1,260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…4b4bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,236$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…5ec7backed Yes | 4c | 1,157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes | 3c | 1,078$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 4c | 1,045$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 4c | 1,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…9e98backed Yes | 5c | 984.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…fd3abacked Yes | 4c | 972.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 3c | 919.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 901.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…50fbbacked Yes | 4c | 894.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…772bbacked Yes | 5c | 882.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…4cb3backed Yes | 2c | 870.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…1a77backed Yes | 5c | 822.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 3c | 674$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…b152backed Yes | 3c | 647.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 5c | 622$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbb…bdd2backed Yes | 3c | 573.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…1fa3backed Yes | 3c | 563.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 557.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 5c | 537.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…c0a2backed Yes | 4c | 513.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 4c | 505.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…cf75backed Yes | 3c | 467.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…7e28backed Yes | 4c | 456.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…4328backed Yes | 5c | 436.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…60b7backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 3c | 372.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…523bbacked Yes | 4c | 370.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…8389backed Yes | 5c | 365.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 353.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…861bbacked Yes | 4c | 309.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 299.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 37c | 217.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.01 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.