World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b98650dcea03df077a8fc07e9959f3bec875231f3dde1490b8ba42577f515e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 3c | 47,605$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.9 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 2c | 16,316$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.81 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…5ccebacked Yes | 2c | 15,980$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 2c | 14,115$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…c42dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 10,871$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,030$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 1c | 8,916$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 2c | 6,983$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…24e2backed Yes | 5c | 6,508$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 2c | 6,134$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 2c | 5,083$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…b029backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 3c | 3,283$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 1c | 3,208$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…0294backed Yes | 3c | 3,197$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…e1e2backed Yes | 2c | 3,006$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f3…3d59backed Yes | 2c | 3,006$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…89a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,672$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,598$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,476$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c36…8e8bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…5a24backed Yes | 2c | 2,335$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,295$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 3c | 2,041$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf411…4606backed Yes | 1c | 2,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…b0ecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…0218backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 4c | 1,747$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…c302backed Yes | 3c | 1,598$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,477$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 1c | 1,245$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…7e45backed Yes | 3c | 1,039$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,023$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 3c | 999.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked Yes | 3c | 726.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 2c | 698.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 491.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 347.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…74f9backed Yes | 5c | 259.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.