TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$632,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632,661 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes3c33,557$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5626…82b3backed Yes3c31,366$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce47…b980backed Yes4c30,850$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…8b28backed Yes2c24,760$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.48260%0 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c23,773$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.774121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c21,459$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.026883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes3c17,365$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.0448224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f16…35e0backed Yes0c16,897$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e1…ab57backed Yes6c14,841$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c13,488$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.844521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed1d…e203backed Yes6c12,685$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bdd…9a5bbacked Yes3c11,827$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c3…eb1fbacked Yes6c10,653$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Yes2c10,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102015%3 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-41.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes2c9,040$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ac…bf4ebacked Yes3c8,682$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x895f…13d2backed Yes3c8,639$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.751118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf9…e7bebacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes4c7,000$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.125036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes2c5,400$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc256…f6a4backed Yes2c4,520$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10880%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,392$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.054766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes2c4,354$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1829…7c25backed Yes5c4,308$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes4c4,281$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.462429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes2c4,193$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7523…0aa5backed Yes5c4,160$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7097…9059backed Yes3c4,067$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11680%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c4,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c3,713$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.441,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3102…7809backed Yes3c3,642$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes2c3,616$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd9…2de2backed Yes3c3,500$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5899…dfbabacked Yes5c3,475$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…c0ffbacked Yes3c3,451$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb071…75fcbacked Yes3c3,207$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7792…4b4bbacked Yes2c2,798$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b3…9a7bbacked Yes4c2,729$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d0…9e98backed Yes3c2,721$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b77…f57dbacked Yes2c2,642$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3959…0594backed Yes4c2,566$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…c9eabacked Yes3c2,554$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd7…5ec7backed Yes3c2,430$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce62…772bbacked Yes2c2,206$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcd…e126backed Yes3c2,148$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes1c2,136$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd5…5542backed Yes2c1,995$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.721711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a7…d50ebacked Yes1c1,902$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ca…8ab9backed Yes3c1,893$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa126…55cebacked Yes3c1,758$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d4d…cfa3backed Yes2c1,609$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-76.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f8…5a3cbacked Yes4c1,602$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6049…5c72backed Yes2c1,598$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70d9…7c38backed Yes3c1,573$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes2c1,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x078d…315ebacked Yes3c1,448$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,387$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb962…fd3abacked Yes2c1,295$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…ceb2backed Yes2c1,281$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-89.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes3c1,253$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1280%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03e…f549backed Yes4c1,224$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes2c1,159$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes2c1,141$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1731443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb781…33aebacked Yes3c1,117$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes2c1,078$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.531717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0db…67fcbacked Yes3c1,053$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843c…7e28backed Yes2c1,046$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49f5…79ffbacked Yes2c1,008$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25014033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cd…c0a2backed Yes2c929.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3b…0bfebacked Yes2c915.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f57…b152backed Yes2c903.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2290%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fe…3832backed Yes2c869.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a8…ababbacked Yes2c863.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No59c819.23$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.784957.1%28 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x44ef…5701backed Yes2c800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…1fa3backed Yes3c675$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c0…8d49backed Yes2c630.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2430…7473backed Yes3c622.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2471…8389backed Yes3c579.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765d…69e8backed Yes2c559$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes4c542$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8616940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ac8…b24fbacked Yes4c521.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f0…523bbacked Yes3c508.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d42…f30ebacked Yes7c368.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c0…8ce7backed Yes3c368$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a8…900fbacked Yes5c302.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes5c269.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.37551.8%1 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No52c142.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.323762.2%23 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.