World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542c7e5dee4acff4a078f07ed38199d43a696400df8b7283b0f3cac4815b8ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 0c | 33,281$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 22,182$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 20c | 13,001$2,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.05 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 1c | 12,249$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 10,301$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.39 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 9,607$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.72 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 24c | 9,334$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 75c | 8,392$6,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,076 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…24e2backed Yes | 14c | 8,368$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 22c | 8,333$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.22 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 5c | 7,805$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 18c | 6,812$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 19c | 6,698$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.72 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 30c | 6,457$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.62 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 26c | 6,050$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.69 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 22c | 4,549$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.29 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 19c | 4,421$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 15c | 3,918$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.84 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes | 23c | 3,480$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 19c | 3,450$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.13 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 21c | 3,418$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 3,218$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 27c | 3,046$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 73c | 2,857$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.86 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…87a8backed Yes | 29c | 2,706$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 13c | 2,510$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.19 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 21c | 2,483$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.02 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 28c | 2,307$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…f57dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,200$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…355bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,007$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…38edbacked Yes | 30c | 2,000$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 26c | 1,907$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.84 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 24c | 1,800$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 25c | 1,781$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 24c | 1,737$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 23c | 1,689$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.76 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 28c | 1,523$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.5 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,506$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,445$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.26 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,437$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.91 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 23c | 1,393$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.64 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 27c | 1,381$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.06 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed Yes | 29c | 999.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 998.7$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.38 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…cb7ebacked Yes | 30c | 940.82$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 22c | 867.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 20c | 861.1$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 832.54$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 795.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 25c | 793.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 32c | 788.59$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 744.07$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.7 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 15c | 700$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 10c | 660$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 20c | 615.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 16c | 614.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 23c | 606.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 23c | 600$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 546.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 540.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 27c | 531.34$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 504.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…7008backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 26c | 484.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 27c | 460$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…af6ebacked Yes | 26c | 450$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 18c | 444$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…7623backed Yes | 23c | 421.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 418.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…14cebacked Yes | 29c | 416.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 26c | 403.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 402.95$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…907ebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…0e7dbacked No | 70c | 375.66$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 24c | 363.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 345.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0cf7backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 27c | 333.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…e921backed Yes | 26c | 314$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 79c | 260.34$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 250.62$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 26c | 235$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 27c | 225.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…ae91backed Yes | 27c | 186.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…c8a5backed Yes | 16c | 182.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 179.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 27c | 172.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 22c | 169$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 23c | 167.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?this page
- Will another party win the Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.