Ukraine · resolved market
U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee44a32b167a5d5d05a4b6522d7304a27b8682e3314528afbd99a9cf22a3ef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd863…4df2backed Yes | 35c | 1,473$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 13c | 1,318$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 67c | 1,222$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.26 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 696.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 65c | 638.53$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.49 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…6475backed Yes | 50c | 602.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 16c | 575.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 468.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 34c | 444$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 413.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 411.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 16c | 383.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 13c | 376$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 35c | 349.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…9e8ebacked Yes | 6c | 313.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…0145backed No | 80c | 297.2$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…b90abacked No | 25c | 215$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 68c | 209.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 75c | 203.63$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed No | 74c | 202.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 27c | 172.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 158.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 20c | 151.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 138.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 67c | 138.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 61c | 102.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed No | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 91.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 77.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 39c | 67.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…740fbacked No | 80c | 50.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x297f…6e57backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 37c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…6b91backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 66c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14cc…f297backed No | 68c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 66c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.