TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

U.S. forces in Gaza before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$263,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1549…e062backed Yes10c18,832$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes2c10,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes4c9,197$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.742619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x174a…f2cebacked Yes12c8,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes6c6,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes17c5,751$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes15c3,864$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.022227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c3,858$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes2c3,380$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.85626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22a8…5d12backed Yes9c3,136$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes14c2,936$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes0c2,724$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.236015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes8c2,661$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaece…b156backed Yes2c2,542$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+142.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7414…0f82backed Yes1c2,402$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes8c2,108$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.162825%7 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c2,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes11c1,909$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb76f…970cbacked Yes8c1,830$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Yes13c1,620$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.621330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a00…8734backed Yes2c1,423$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c999.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x361f…0fc2backed Yes10c952.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c910.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.073989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…d5e8backed Yes16c900$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+151.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes15c858.38$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0417452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d1…a6fcbacked Yes1c838.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c831.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes13c792.2$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.71816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3e…82b4backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes2c766.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4924035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes6c760.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.42385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes8c760$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes3c744.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Yes13c685.89$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.115742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97c…03f4backed Yes15c674.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked Yes15c660$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes9c566.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes4c564.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3514819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes2c538.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c474.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5613525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes7c464.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c435$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa728…5a45backed Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes10c398.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8214843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1932…aab5backed Yes3c387.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1170%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…a274backed Yes16c350$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5660%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1512…68f3backed Yes14c344.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.251926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8087…ae70backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf061…2572backed Yes15c330$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes15c328.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes16c323$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a89…71adbacked Yes12c316.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.34837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da7…ba93backed Yes16c312.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c83…9015backed Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424d…244fbacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…af65backed Yes15c268$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91d…a524backed Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+116.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes12c235$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0942…a9e0backed Yes15c233.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c7…05dfbacked Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f1…eb43backed Yes16c210$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes11c209.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285922%13 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…44c8backed Yes16c197.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x408f…f885backed Yes13c185.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes8c166$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.725639.3%22 W · 34 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes14c162.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1883…ff30backed Yes11c157.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d9f…a52bbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f94…0e56backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked Yes16c151.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440f…6c5abacked Yes16c134.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes15c133$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9517238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b3a…aad9backed Yes13c126.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.622641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe08d…d5d4backed Yes11c110.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9d1…a8d5backed Yes13c106.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2c…0f77backed Yes13c100.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf746…614abacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.580%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bb…d19dbacked Yes12c84.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d71…c65bbacked Yes14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e17…9944backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9439…0126backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.