Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1549…e062backed Yes | 10c | 18,832$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 4c | 9,197$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.74 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 12c | 8,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 17c | 5,751$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 15c | 3,864$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 3,858$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 2c | 3,380$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…5d12backed Yes | 9c | 3,136$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes | 14c | 2,936$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,724$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,661$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…b156backed Yes | 2c | 2,542$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…0f82backed Yes | 1c | 2,402$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 8c | 2,108$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.33 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 11c | 1,909$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,830$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,620$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 2c | 1,423$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 999.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 10c | 952.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 910.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed Yes | 16c | 900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 15c | 858.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…a6fcbacked Yes | 1c | 838.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 831.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 13c | 792.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…82b4backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 766.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 760.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 8c | 760$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 3c | 744.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 13c | 685.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…03f4backed Yes | 15c | 674.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 15c | 660$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 9c | 566.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 564.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 2c | 538.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 474.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 7c | 464.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 435$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…5a45backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 10c | 398.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…aab5backed Yes | 3c | 387.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…a274backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 14c | 344.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…ae70backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Yes | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 15c | 328.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 16c | 323$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 12c | 316.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 16c | 312.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…9015backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…244fbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…af65backed Yes | 15c | 268$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…a524backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 235$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…a9e0backed Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…05dfbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…eb43backed Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 11c | 209.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 16c | 197.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…f885backed Yes | 13c | 185.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 8c | 166$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 162.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1883…ff30backed Yes | 11c | 157.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…a52bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…0e56backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 16c | 151.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…6c5abacked Yes | 16c | 134.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3a…aad9backed Yes | 13c | 126.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed Yes | 11c | 110.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…a8d5backed Yes | 13c | 106.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…0f77backed Yes | 13c | 100.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…d19dbacked Yes | 12c | 84.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…c65bbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9944backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9439…0126backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.