Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Egypt sever diplomatic relations before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfc0debb337f93c9d9fd8f83c5c8a29658016d3fddb2e50b56e6b0bacd243ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 6c | 9,738$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.2 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 4c | 7,929$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,015$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 3,721$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,911$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…61e5backed Yes | 8c | 2,568$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,012$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…77b5backed Yes | 7c | 1,275$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…3959backed Yes | 4c | 1,237$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,223$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,023$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 999.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 863.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 3c | 852.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 718.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…0305backed Yes | 2c | 706.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…738fbacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes | 5c | 699.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 3c | 690.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 2c | 471.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 7c | 392.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 314.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…4ee8backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…87acbacked Yes | 19c | 109.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.