TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump positive favorability on Day 100?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$250,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x040f…807ebacked Yes10c70,593$7,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,059.340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes9c14,480$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c6,700$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes23c5,200$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.52937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No77c5,009$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.4311848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes7c3,500$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.259810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes9c3,482$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0216535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No72c2,751$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.233839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes28c2,303$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.9416943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes28c2,200$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61680%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes30c2,188$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.493941%16 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No76c1,942$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.7837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes43c1,877$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.25641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269a…0837backed No68c1,464$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes11c1,455$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.624119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes18c1,166$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.822313%3 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c1,111$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6855618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes20c1,059$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.762222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0965…f1cfbacked Yes8c1,050$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No69c897.22$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2792650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes37c817.7$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.911118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…2866backed Yes38c799.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes34c710.1$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4316725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed No66c709.09$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.433732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes22c700$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.297432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes27c700$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f75…351dbacked Yes2c691.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No67c636.54$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.394630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes33c577.11$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.456229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No62c576$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.28057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes18c550$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes33c535.93$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.661811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d46…bfb6backed Yes22c500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbac8…9a92backed Yes24c470.37$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b11…8625backed Yes17c450$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-81.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb8…37b6backed No67c447.82$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+84%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa405…fe9dbacked Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No62c355$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.96442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba6a…91d1backed Yes26c344.2$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b3f…4b41backed No70c338.62$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed No56c337.27$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.891040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes43c250$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.58143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c231.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.732154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c223.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No66c213.06$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.448741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7b…5824backed Yes34c213.06$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.441050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No75c209$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.066246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked No69c202.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.93161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes20c202.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd42c…8d31backed No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No80c190$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c59…7259backed Yes21c186.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c185.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.371,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c160.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes38c159.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+73.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9597…50babacked No79c155.56$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked No76c154.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.252842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No67c150.84$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.786038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes20c144.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3217713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No65c143.38$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.954774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc4e…05e0backed Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc743…44d8backed Yes8c137.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c126$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.731,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd621…db65backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-71.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked Yes34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No64c110.86$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.385349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6176…79e9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5fa…9795backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f2…b499backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3015…611fbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b87…e76dbacked No71c98.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x669a…4b43backed No63c95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5a…acaebacked Yes33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb701…0ca0backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b81…4c5dbacked No69c79.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…48e5backed Yes34c79.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No64c75.32$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.916065%39 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed No68c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.68944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa953…be4dbacked No63c70.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162d…368fbacked Yes33c61.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297f…7840backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No69c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.48377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked Yes36c57.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.673531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed No72c55.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.373053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.519436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed No72c48.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.642931%9 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb03f…74c6backed Yes38c47.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…88ccbacked Yes35c43.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4b…0a3dbacked Yes34c39.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d36…8551backed No69c36.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes37c35.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No64c33.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.93955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+88.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No66c30.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.085966.1%39 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5d…cccbbacked No67c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.