Us Politics · resolved market
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ce364b7af68f9bafdeef0c10344b5f0fca5403e1c98614b5fdf5e3d7d03e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $543,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $653,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 4c | 31,484$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.23 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…dbe2backed Yes | 5c | 13,760$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…7d67backed Yes | 2c | 13,213$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 12,161$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.43 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 7c | 12,138$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 9,257$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.3 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…c640backed Yes | 0c | 8,819$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 3c | 8,630$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 5c | 7,507$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46c…d270backed Yes | 4c | 4,797$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…3528backed Yes | 4c | 4,681$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 6c | 4,150$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.95 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 6c | 4,096$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 3,879$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.21 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 6c | 3,668$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 7c | 3,373$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.03 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,228$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,914$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…69debacked Yes | 4c | 2,862$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 8c | 2,700$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.84 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,616$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,604$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…3580backed Yes | 0c | 2,314$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,305$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…935cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,663$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 8c | 1,457$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…777dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,436$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…eababacked Yes | 4c | 1,330$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,178$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 6c | 1,082$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…f4abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,024$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8522…e26fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,012$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 3c | 999.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 3c | 917.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes | 6c | 844.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…100dbacked Yes | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 4c | 801.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 7c | 749.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 4c | 682.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 2c | 635.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…8a53backed Yes | 5c | 575.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 549.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…2692backed Yes | 5c | 529.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 10c | 513.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 5c | 510.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 8c | 474.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…7d36backed Yes | 4c | 468.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 465.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 447$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…f6e5backed Yes | 5c | 445.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156c…ad2abacked Yes | 3c | 441.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 429.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…7af5backed Yes | 4c | 423.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 5c | 421.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 362.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 11c | 356.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…27e5backed Yes | 4c | 356.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…dfaabacked Yes | 4c | 337.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…c8b0backed Yes | 6c | 334.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20f…1e48backed Yes | 4c | 333.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…55ffbacked Yes | 3c | 297.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365d…79a9backed Yes | 5c | 279.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 5c | 270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed Yes | 4c | 267.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de7…183cbacked Yes | 14c | 263.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…8ccbbacked Yes | 4c | 258.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…bb30backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…e4c9backed Yes | 7c | 249.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…c16ebacked Yes | 8c | 244.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…b371backed Yes | 5c | 236.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8df…5950backed Yes | 5c | 224.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 5c | 210.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e6…10d0backed Yes | 6c | 200.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 177$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 175.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 10c | 108.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.