World Politics · resolved market
U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa870dbf3b02508881eb73e723ff184065786f90ac3d7e47f5713c776b84e1bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 31c | 2,905$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.13 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 3c | 2,862$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 2,775$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 2,468$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 42c | 2,176$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,813$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,810$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,380$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 11c | 1,266$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 67c | 1,197$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,192$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 1,025$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 754.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…a9cabacked Yes | 2c | 725.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 40c | 561.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 8c | 520$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 440.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 4c | 426.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 9c | 407.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 42c | 400$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.76 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 29c | 337.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 277.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 64c | 265.57$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…3870backed Yes | 12c | 257.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722b…82dcbacked Yes | 9c | 249.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 234.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…4cecbacked No | 73c | 222.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 200.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 43c | 190$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 63c | 189.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 12c | 174.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 10c | 153.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 48c | 152$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 23c | 140.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…f6abbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 42c | 114.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 103$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed No | 79c | 60.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked Yes | 57c | 53.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…b4abbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc62…e8e6backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed No | 41c | 46.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 50c | 35.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 62c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…d29ebacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.