Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6ef4ee16da2e6530b1e4000302fb15fc915a1ef898c5677eee563cbf58f8e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 74c | 32,603$24,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,326.35 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 25c | 29,181$7,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,417.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 22c | 11,487$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.03 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…9d96backed Yes | 8c | 10,651$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…69afbacked Yes | 11c | 10,248$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 23c | 8,269$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 32c | 7,569$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.03 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 24c | 5,696$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.22 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 39c | 5,222$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7a…712ebacked Yes | 12c | 5,189$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,022$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 66c | 4,851$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.02 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 6c | 4,815$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.73 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 7c | 4,245$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked Yes | 25c | 4,235$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,174$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,547$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.53 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 34c | 3,495$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 21c | 3,400$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Yes | 9c | 3,215$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 67c | 2,874$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed No | 65c | 2,800$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…57d1backed Yes | 44c | 2,795$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 2,525$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.23 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,220$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…a881backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 40c | 1,987$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,814$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 34c | 1,790$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,740$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…8c5bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,678$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,646$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 36c | 1,583$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.36 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06e…d224backed Yes | 32c | 1,580$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…bf17backed No | 50c | 1,422$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 52c | 1,415$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…016cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,391$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 8c | 1,194$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,078$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…a189backed Yes | 1c | 1,041$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed No | 65c | 1,026$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 27c | 926$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.71 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…0253backed Yes | 11c | 925.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 23c | 889.32$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.07 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 2c | 887.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 72c | 871.72$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.69 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 823.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…e25abacked No | 66c | 821.56$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…3141backed No | 61c | 816.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked No | 60c | 799.99$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 787$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 31c | 770$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 34c | 769.41$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0133…2f7fbacked Yes | 28c | 764.61$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 34c | 735.67$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.13 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 8c | 709.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 700$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 11c | 682.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…e0d0backed No | 58c | 678.26$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 28c | 639.44$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 22c | 634.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 67c | 599.82$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +65%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 27c | 592$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.16 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 565.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed Yes | 3c | 549.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…19adbacked Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes | 7c | 508.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 73c | 465$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 22c | 454$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 13c | 451.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 75c | 449.21$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 41c | 444$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked Yes | 34c | 441.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 25c | 440$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 36c | 431.27$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 33c | 419.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed No | 74c | 403.42$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 37cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 69c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 54c | 399.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 34c | 399.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…3841backed No | 48c | 389$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 24c | 379.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…4228backed Yes | 34c | 367.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes | 42c | 363.84$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 363.43$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 29c | 348.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…229ebacked Yes | 34c | 348.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 34c | 344$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed Yes | 18c | 334.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…8f85backed Yes | 11c | 306.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 298.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 31c | 291.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.