TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Diddy sex tape released before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86a2…be38backed Yes18c17,314$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,178.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c3,502$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0224732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8764…6d8fbacked No60c2,864$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes1c2,552$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes10c1,930$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No77c1,807$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes17c1,805$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.432416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes9c1,736$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa5…7e01backed No60c1,700$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74e…045dbacked Yes5c1,518$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed Yes10c1,201$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c7…b297backed Yes1c1,167$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7653…42e7backed Yes10c1,006$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab64…d070backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d0…ea2cbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No79c931.98$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes3c928.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.711414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes21c921.19$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4f…859cbacked Yes6c778.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed No60c750$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+218.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes10c674.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6b…29fdbacked No77c652.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes6c650.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.041546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes16c632.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes15c550$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…7d13backed Yes20c511.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc174…6941backed Yes19c500$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No73c493.15$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5196…a0cabacked Yes18c486.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes21c478.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac7…afbebacked Yes14c457.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0b…016abacked Yes17c406.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed No80c401.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccde…f241backed Yes19c368.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5730…a3f3backed Yes29c342.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Yes6c330.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…02edbacked Yes23c300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6445…4ec0backed No79c265.04$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+85.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f1…b223backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes10c229.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.89616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ef…f907backed Yes19c206.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+84.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed No77c195.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x550d…8cabbacked Yes21c188.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe564…8b04backed Yes12c178.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes11c174.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b0…fc0bbacked Yes24c163.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No70c162.54$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.761464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed3e…21a8backed Yes8c160$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+149.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7add…9765backed Yes10c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No80c149.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11070%7 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+107.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes28c147.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.741225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d91…863dbacked Yes10c146.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7567…9cf4backed Yes8c137.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f32…d3fbbacked No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked No75c127.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd10e…ea03backed No79c118.05$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd826…d6c0backed Yes11c114.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked No56c111.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…75c2backed Yes19c110.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c73…bcb7backed Yes38c105.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55de…2850backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes13c104.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b2b…69a5backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e54…d888backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc221…92a8backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…5733backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f95…cd47backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ae…d900backed Yes17c98.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4297…8a8bbacked Yes12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ca5…fb42backed No60c83.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x535f…5ce5backed Yes16c78.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…604fbacked Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab3…fad8backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…42c1backed No76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b1…a403backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d5…ee0bbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696f…5ef7backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3629…f28cbacked Yes26c57.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…076bbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x560f…0a0cbacked Yes27c55.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No62c50.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick41cpaid+242.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c98…eef4backed No71c49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa52d…267fbacked No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b62…bbfdbacked Yes29c44.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3f…2053backed No78c37.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7576…f961backed No73c37.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34a…e49cbacked No76c32.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x318a…2f3dbacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fc…da6abacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057e…f88ebacked No76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.