TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Federal employee charged as a result of DOGE investigation?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x431d…a7d9backed Yes32c95,199$30,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,463.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…4d7fbacked No68c95,199$64,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,463.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f8…3428backed Yes53c7,865$4,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf23d…b77abacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+313.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No43c4,109$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.63930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes58c3,748$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.6337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No39c3,000$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.289746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c2,685$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.4169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes6c2,083$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-85.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2e5…4f9dbacked Yes58c1,719$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes14c1,713$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.696530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No43c1,699$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.965234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes60c1,300$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.052343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes45c1,279$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.263125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Yes9c1,243$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf29a…39afbacked Yes54c870$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes62c850$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.622937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No73c844.27$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.0410056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c773$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.463989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes43c740.67$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.596357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No49c699.99$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3578127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No46c640$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.963253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes36c499.97$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.993138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes21c447.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.486221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes40c444.08$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes5c414$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.923511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c384.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69da…f98cbacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65fe…eab9backed No61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes6c304.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.545532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No46c302.81$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.683859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1779846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8f…6213backed Yes59c292.87$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8554…25c9backed Yes8c289.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c284.47$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes58c284.46$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.994820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No64c280.69$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3113046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd27a…e9dfbacked Yes56c267.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.58847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7ef…3870backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6759…1261backed No50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes38c235.49$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.986246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes54c190$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.62850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b1f…34babacked Yes54c185.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-75.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ed…9f94backed Yes60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd05e…195bbacked Yes60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x022a…2da6backed Yes60c166.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.296354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0833…d8fcbacked Yes61c144.39$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Yes64c140$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.434257.1%24 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef5…3cb5backed Yes69c134.44$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+95.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked No43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.288030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc435…6ff1backed Yes54c111$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc6…c974backed Yes68c110.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf91…d662backed No56c105.79$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f44…9db9backed Yes50c102.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602556%14 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes53c94.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.051921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7576…f961backed No54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc394…8444backed Yes59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba6a…91d1backed Yes59c84.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No70c79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.73658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed No77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…f9a4backed Yes68c73.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b47…1cf9backed Yes60c71.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No54c70.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6328636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ed…20b0backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb370…28d5backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-86.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes57c63.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.184434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No50c60.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4714819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ab…5fb4backed No56c53.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.511866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8f6…73d2backed Yes58c51.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2319436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No39c49.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.266634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No33c44.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0717713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No76c44.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4313167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed No57c43.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.784630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.547753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes49c40.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206634.8%23 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.22360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.71353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.83941%16 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1c0…511ebacked No64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.062070%14 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…8e16backed Yes63c33.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.151822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4389…d9f3backed Yes35c31.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddb…7a82backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.718914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1f…cb6abacked No42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.857562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd621…db65backed Yes67c29.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-71.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes57c27.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e67…bfbbbacked No47c27.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a26…9d2fbacked Yes77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.