Us Politics · resolved market
Will courts block DOGE access to Treasury payments before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4b9e5efdbe4772cad179d7823122afe9477dd36da8584a7c442f06d977b2a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 0c | 9,276$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 9c | 1,063$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 73c | 772$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.53 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…bdcfbacked Yes | 71c | 660.29$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 25c | 379.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 368.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed No | 8c | 323.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 66c | 151.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 44c | 120.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 27c | 109.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 37c | 86.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 50.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…e688backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 44.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 38c | 34.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 64c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…7a01backed Yes | 67c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.