Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump end Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48716e3c69decbfb49288cf17fee5d41a70111eb335ba770ae2d62d3d53bfb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9056…df79backed Yes | 28c | 116,900$32,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,732 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…1743backed No | 72c | 116,900$84,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,732 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 15c | 1,699$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.75 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,365$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 14c | 801.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 70c | 347.66$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 208.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 70c | 204.05$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 49c | 182.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 181$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…9c0abacked Yes | 30c | 115.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297f…6e57backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 77c | 80.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f50…9569backed No | 75c | 66.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…0f11backed No | 76c | 65.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 67cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…c753backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…45f9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…dee0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.