NFL · resolved market
Will the Rizzler appear in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadac1c7afdcab612ac1193f9b519bdb4d6717580f2adcc4641eede20932339aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5826…f2e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,640$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…aed5backed Yes | 75c | 1,447$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 40c | 1,431$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…b444backed Yes | 29c | 946.12$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…f3d1backed No | 78c | 627.98$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 50c | 392.18$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…7f0abacked No | 67c | 350$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f0…3a9ebacked Yes | 23c | 343.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…490bbacked Yes | 60c | 334.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 37c | 308.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 25c | 280$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23a…aa7ebacked Yes | 73c | 274.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 253.28$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1dfdbacked Yes | 43c | 247.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 32c | 229.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 78c | 225.73$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…9d86backed Yes | 25c | 196.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf4…3ea5backed Yes | 63c | 190.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 28c | 186.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +148%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 46c | 182.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…2085backed Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…f0ebbacked Yes | 64c | 155.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked No | 74c | 142.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 75c | 140.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 49c | 139.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…31a0backed Yes | 73c | 137.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes | 29c | 136.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…5865backed Yes | 75c | 132.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -6.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 34c | 125.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 22c | 114.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 16c | 109.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f41…59babacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +757.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 49c | 90.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 59c | 88.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 40c | 86.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed No | 76c | 83.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…513ebacked No | 63c | 83.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…6a16backed Yes | 34c | 74.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked No | 77c | 71.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e23…ff24backed Yes | 78c | 68.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…7f3bbacked Yes | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…77e0backed No | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 18c | 65.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…9d66backed Yes | 47c | 63.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…9e08backed No | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…ec1fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…d6f1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 41c | 59.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 39c | 56.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…0295backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed No | 50c | 54.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…7ae2backed Yes | 66c | 53.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 22c | 51.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…0fcdbacked No | 69c | 49.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…8bb4backed No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…08a2backed Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…38b5backed Yes | 50c | 42.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…203fbacked Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…b566backed No | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed No | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…6d61backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…5548backed No | 52c | 37.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d597backed No | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…ab45backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04a…348abacked No | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…be4ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 68c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…29eebacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 54c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…3428backed No | 66c | 21.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02d…3277backed Yes | 71c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…b660backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…5672backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.