TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Rizzler appear in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5826…f2e4backed Yes1c2,640$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980a…aed5backed Yes75c1,447$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.021216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-66.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No40c1,431$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8581275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+44.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6e0…b444backed Yes29c946.12$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3819…f3d1backed No78c627.98$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063b…0711backed Yes31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…e408backed Yes50c392.18$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x018d…7f0abacked No67c350$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+83.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x58f0…3a9ebacked Yes23c343.44$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d3…490bbacked Yes60c334.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No37c308.6$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.012437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes25c280$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.41353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23a…aa7ebacked Yes73c274.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c253.28$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5810143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…1dfdbacked Yes43c247.05$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed No32c229.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No78c225.73$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.665750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0180…9d86backed Yes25c196.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf4…3ea5backed Yes63c190.46$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed No28c186.01$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+148%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78fa…103abacked Yes46c182.81$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd467…2085backed Yes56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f89…f0ebbacked Yes64c155.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.57732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No74c142.14$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No75c140.6$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.748958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No49c139.58$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d07…31a0backed Yes73c137.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes29c136.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9419…5865backed Yes75c132.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes22c130$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.62015%3 W · 17 L-6.3wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-71.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed No34c125.85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.215129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes52c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.41650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a0…6feebacked Yes22c114.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes16c109.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.498951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c102$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4431439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f41…59babacked No78c101$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+757.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No49c90.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No59c88.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.099181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No40c86.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525158.8%30 W · 21 L+9.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No53c85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.051894.4%17 W · 1 L+6.2wins+0.35per pick60cpaid+73.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xccaa…9066backed No76c83.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bff…513ebacked No63c83.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f79…6a16backed Yes34c74.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14f…d46dbacked No77c71.54$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed Yes31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7120%0 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e23…ff24backed Yes78c68.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcae2…7f3bbacked Yes49c66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2621…77e0backed No51c66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes18c65.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97b2…9d66backed Yes47c63.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f6…9e08backed No68c63$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f0…ec1fbacked Yes33c60.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d69…d6f1backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes41c59.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes39c56.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fb…0295backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1726…3986backed No50c54.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6006…7ae2backed Yes66c53.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes22c51.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.331729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3832…7044backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ff…83f1backed No21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0065…02f3backed No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed No46c49.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e3…0fcdbacked No69c49.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No75c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211945.4%54 W · 65 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cee…8bb4backed No51c47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21a…08a2backed Yes49c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cb…38b5backed Yes50c42.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4932…203fbacked Yes49c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00f2…b566backed No51c41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.093100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7576…f961backed No49c40.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.441566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75c…6d61backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x909f…5548backed No52c37.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d597backed No51c35.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb8…ab45backed Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa04a…348abacked No63c31.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a5…be4ebacked Yes48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes68c29.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…29eebacked Yes73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes54c26.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2910345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f6…3428backed No66c21.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02d…3277backed Yes71c21.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes50c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19a…b660backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6244.2%1 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-75.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.210442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d7…5672backed No78c14.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.