Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36e4fc1c087ac71c0936849a51210e90f18ad417a07cf8c0bcc81f66be43bd70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 2c | 11,443$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 14c | 4,092$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 3c | 3,358$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 20c | 3,101$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 25c | 2,480$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.71 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,420$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,348$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 68c | 2,315$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.22 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed Yes | 4c | 2,262$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 32c | 2,223$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,082$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.59 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…60e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 12c | 1,966$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.57 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,949$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.63 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,710$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 70c | 1,545$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 73c | 1,466$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6e…be2cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,433$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 1,358$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.92 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 67c | 1,208$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.92 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 7c | 1,132$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 45c | 1,114$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.67 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…4b79backed Yes | 19c | 1,056$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked No | 70c | 1,005$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db2…a027backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 40c | 982.52$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…1459backed Yes | 4c | 899.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…1e09backed Yes | 58c | 873.53$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…3a88backed Yes | 36c | 843.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,750.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…febfbacked Yes | 34c | 831.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bb…4ee0backed Yes | 31c | 830.47$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…34cbbacked No | 75c | 805.61$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 77c | 801.83$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 79c | 797.65$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…cee5backed Yes | 18c | 789.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 77c | 775.87$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.87 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…6f77backed Yes | 20c | 775.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…6a2bbacked No | 70c | 765.67$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 19c | 748.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked No | 73c | 713.22$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes | 27c | 666.68$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84df…168bbacked Yes | 68c | 646.3$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…a537backed Yes | 30c | 644.81$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…1251backed Yes | 40c | 631.69$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 60c | 626.69$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…d868backed Yes | 35c | 620.83$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…d7d0backed No | 72c | 614.21$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…c370backed Yes | 30c | 610.63$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 67c | 603.45$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 32c | 541.93$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 74c | 510$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 483.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…6941backed Yes | 50c | 467.68$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 38c | 459.37$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 16c | 451$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…aedabacked No | 63c | 443.9$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed No | 73c | 430$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…edfbbacked No | 75c | 426.02$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 30c | 424.31$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 54c | 366.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…cb74backed Yes | 4c | 352.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 28c | 349.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 40c | 340$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…d185backed Yes | 30c | 338.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 33c | 326.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…ad5bbacked No | 75c | 317.35$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 32c | 307.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a90…93bfbacked No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 69c | 292.71$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c3…95b7backed Yes | 5c | 292$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…712cbacked Yes | 38c | 287.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 40c | 274.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 41c | 274.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6fa3backed Yes | 36c | 259.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 39c | 254.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…fbf6backed No | 79c | 254.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 24c | 248.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 243.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…d391backed No | 72c | 242.07$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked No | 59c | 235.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 60c | 230.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 63c | 229.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 15c | 228.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…9276backed Yes | 37c | 225.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 17c | 217.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 19c | 210.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…b52fbacked Yes | 62c | 208.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 21c | 205.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 32c | 203.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.