NFL · resolved market
Will Aaron Rodgers retire?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f6e9f3aee46ac8031a9879ed7e9d94b082c3e0e76395e82f9e7d5c57362efd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf812…b1a3backed No | 58c | 91,822$53,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,565.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…3fc9backed Yes | 42c | 91,822$38,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,565.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,293$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 2c | 2,324$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 900$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed No | 68c | 493.04$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 55c | 490.81$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 4c | 462.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 320.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 302.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…0d6abacked Yes | 7c | 288.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 5c | 243.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 228.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 203$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…1938backed Yes | 31c | 197.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…2845backed Yes | 52c | 192.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0a…9ad1backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 64c | 158.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 9c | 136.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 47c | 136$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 48c | 111.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 59c | 109.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 46c | 99.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +404.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 12c | 82.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…862abacked Yes | 17c | 79.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…bf2bbacked Yes | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 37c | 52.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4426…387dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed Yes | 53c | 38.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 60c | 38.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a9…93f9backed No | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…f41abacked No | 58c | 31.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bc…7449backed Yes | 45c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed No | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.