TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Lil Wayne perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15a5…0c45backed Yes14c1,214$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No68c1,118$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.419645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbef5…239fbacked Yes24c863.33$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9320…49c6backed Yes34c796.83$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No72c793.57$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.958958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes21c694$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6148847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4b…4554backed No69c660.6$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes32c634.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No78c443.14$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.791369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No72c413.54$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.343551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes3c404.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d5…b74fbacked No79c333.48$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes20c295$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.282218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No79c267.19$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.499181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes21c260.47$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.282623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes14c257$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.775530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked Yes64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x325a…43b7backed No64c236$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.96333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No67c218.43$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.625750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes24c210$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9732347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes9c202.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.111010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes39c151$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes17c146$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No74c144.02$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes30c121.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.58825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd00a…9aefbacked Yes28c121.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes16c104$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2529439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf577…972ebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes25c79.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes36c79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Yes27c74.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7576…f961backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes22c59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8315332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78fa…103abacked Yes28c54.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8550…90f7backed No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc5af…a2febacked No64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed No75c27.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c27.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5926830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe854…269fbacked No64c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4bf…7eacbacked No80c17.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8f…87e7backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.