TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will SZA perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,082 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad6d…fb82backed No1c60,460$323 inLost-$323.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No0c4,168$17 inLost-$16.61969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No1c2,694$19 inLost-$18.771508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78fa…103abacked No3c727.47$24 inLost-$243016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes59c435$258 inWon+$177.13551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No30c300$90 inLost-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes66c289$191 inWon+$98.2848847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No30c262$79 inLost-$78.945832.8%19 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No33c248.88$82 inLost-$81.7131439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes70c232$162 inWon+$69.611837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No9c200$18 inLost-$1828151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes80c200$160 inWon+$40966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed No35c160.38$57 inLost-$56.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes67c157.16$105 inWon+$51.782737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No8c137.5$11 inLost-$1112239.3%48 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1246…6192backed No50c98$49 inLost-$4920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes66c95$63 inWon+$32.32532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No50c95$48 inLost-$47.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No38c84.32$32 inLost-$32.317131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No17c60$10 inLost-$1026830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked No26c41.35$11 inLost-$10.751450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes66c37.88$25 inWon+$12.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed No66c37.65$25 inLost-$25540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes62c30.98$19 inWon+$11.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Yes73c20$15 inWon+$5.42657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.