TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Mustard perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes61c2,534$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.921788.2%15 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick57cpaid+49.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2d53…398bbacked No49c2,354$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd456…5755backed Yes69c961.51$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d09…3dcebacked No31c961.51$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4b…4554backed No22c804.3$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x242c…75bebacked Yes73c678.64$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…130dbacked No27c678.64$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes60c538.28$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.9919645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No40c434.25$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.625832.8%19 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes56c405.59$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.828151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad6d…fb82backed No19c371.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes3c337.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+520.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes64c322$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6311837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe68…6b19backed No53c299.95$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1953…5607backed No35c299.35$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes57c274.6$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2248847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c268.61$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3231439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes59c239$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.172532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6330…4546backed No44c226.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes50c207$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.53551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No37c202.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.142623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes63c197.76$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.174546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked Yes62c162.72$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.889181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No33c145.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.168958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No50c145$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No39c143.31$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.37131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x87ab…9754backed Yes69c142.92$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed No35c139.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.761241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…ff15backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ec…80f0backed Yes64c105.46$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No21c105$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.055750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa21f…b08fbacked No50c100.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367149.3%35 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d5…b74fbacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes57c99.55$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.322737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1246…6192backed No50c98.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes72c72.78$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.641250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes71c67.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8726830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked No50c57.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9360%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No43c52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes38c51.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.71942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes45c44.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6712239.3%48 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No50c40.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.63171%22 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb62a…dffcbacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.051136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x909f…5548backed No46c31.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes78c25.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.78234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.552828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.529439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0155…b012backed No50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff7…0308backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes51c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.