TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6330…4546

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
135
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2025, EDT8267.1%55 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+32.4%+$14.6
Hawks vs. Hornetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+37.5%+$65.33
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Bulls vs. Jazzbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$79.58
Pistons vs. Pelicansbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$42.3
Kings vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+25%+$8.76
Raptors vs. Jazzbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$278.74
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$102.67
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+306.7%+$122.12
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$18.33
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.28
Lakers vs. Netsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$193.42
Grizzlies vs. Pelicansbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$44.53
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+31.6%+$35.82
Trail Blazers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+85.2%+$52.18
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+61.3%+$38.51
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+32.2%+$13.03
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Kings vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Wizards vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+117.4%+$23.48
Hornets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+28.2%+$8.46
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+31.3%+$15.64
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Canucksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$312.69
Oilers vs. Islandersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Rangers vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$22.5
Maple Leafs vs. Utahbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Flyers vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lightning vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+28.2%+$7.05
Canucks vs. Ducksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Jets vs. Predatorsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Stars vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30.92
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Canucks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Utah vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+58.7%+$10.32
Jets vs. Bluesbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+85.2%+$21.3
Capitals vs. Penguinsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.98
Oilers vs. Flyersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Stars vs. Sharksbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+40%+$39.98
Sabres vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+51.5%+$9.1
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$33.29
Panthers vs. Krakenbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+50%+$10
Blues vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2025, EST1573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dayton vs. Rhode Islandbacked Dayton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+53.8%+$8.08
Austin Peay vs. West Georgiabacked Austin Peay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Queens vs. West Georgiabacked Queens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+36.4%+$14.19
UNC Wilmington vs. William & Marybacked UNC Wilmington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+25%+$5
Mercer vs. The Citadelbacked Mercer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$11.67
Wofford vs. VMIbacked Wofford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$10.21
Kent State vs. Bowling Greenbacked Kent State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$10.21
North Florida vs. Stetsonbacked North Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+38.9%+$9.72
Nicholls State vs. New Orleansbacked Nicholls State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+27.3%+$5.74
McNeese State vs. SE Louisianabacked McNeese State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+29.9%+$7.47
UConn vs. Seton Hallbacked UConn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$15.32
Columbia vs. Dartmouthbacked Columbia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$29.81
James Madison vs. Georgia Southernbacked James Madison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+51.5%+$20.61
Monmouth vs. Stony Brookbacked Monmouth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+75.4%+$30.18
Texas A&M-CC vs. Lamarbacked Texas A&M-CC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 15 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockies vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Cardinals vs. Rockiesbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Reds vs. Nationalsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+829.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+829.4%+$417
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.