TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Reds, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fba…d08abacked Reds54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,80053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Nationals46c18,011$8,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,725.960451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Reds24c11,107$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.959749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4001,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dae…f8b2backed Nationals79c9,551$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.1813352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Reds12c6,700$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Reds54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70049250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Reds17c4,605$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80029240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds5c4,191$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.471,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds16c3,996$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.692,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals80c2,862$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.949,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0e…6527backed Reds20c2,561$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.262948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Reds14c2,500$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34442452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Reds54c2,315$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25026847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Reds8c2,185$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9738444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Reds16c2,164$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9943946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa6…1b13backed Nationals45c2,070$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.541163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa28e…058cbacked Reds55c2,070$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-66%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x54cd…71b9backed Nationals45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+55.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Reds54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ab…27d6backed Nationals45c1,900$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds6c1,871$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.191,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Reds1c1,827$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.978762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Reds10c1,557$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.236,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81a0…dd29backed Nationals45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Reds18c1,466$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5417927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Reds53c1,464$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.948254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…73dcbacked Reds55c1,300$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ea…51a7backed Reds15c1,300$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds16c1,201$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.224,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Reds20c1,174$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Reds21c1,108$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.344332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x000b…00f5backed Reds28c1,060$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe456…a60bbacked Reds55c1,045$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Reds28c1,037$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65df…8397backed Reds55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-54.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa09d…4ee0backed Reds55c973$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fff…d4b2backed Reds55c955$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e9…0b33backed Reds55c927$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a3c…7c1ebacked Nationals45c800$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Reds54c755.56$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4086149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ca…5b45backed Reds54c750$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4057065.7%46 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nationals46c719.89$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.7495850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Reds52c700$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.213359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds33c602.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Reds54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32433852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Reds54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds54c403$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.622,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Reds8c391.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9296133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Reds53c386.13$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6510550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd25…f900backed Reds54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…0672backed Nationals47c369.17$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Nationals75c359$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.511,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Nationals46c324.98$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4912655.6%70 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Reds15c316.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3910719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nationals44c298.84$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.385,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f39…27a5backed Reds20c285.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.029345.2%42 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ea…44e8backed Reds15c285.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Reds54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Reds56c266.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Reds34c256.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.332,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Reds55c221.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.091,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Reds53c214$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4240548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x261a…c166backed Reds8c205.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.543636.1%13 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Reds5c202.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Nationals45c202.19$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.25940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30be…3566backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7e…4b6fbacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9f…8483backed Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf716…c440backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x386c…bc0dbacked Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c2…0705backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8a…1a07backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5322…6b5fbacked Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9752…bd2ebacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103271.9%23 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+46.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5b4f…2737backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa51b…8938backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7811…36d3backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc249…06b5backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b2…88d1backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d59…569ebacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e57…836cbacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffe…8149backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b6…d335backed Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103450%17 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f02…8dcebacked Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103450%17 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x411f…5a20backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb72d…aa23backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc312…d500backed Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…aa96backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8e2…7de9backed Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x977e…910bbacked Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf783…7684backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b01…aeb1backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…e236backed Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-48.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdba3…f9ccbacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b5…7e4fbacked Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b2…94dfbacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…4f0cbacked Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa86b…60acbacked Reds55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eac…4ff0backed Nationals45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.