World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12992d76920358550d8c9f2c4f1dc63bb8c2ba0be8d48b51b8b8cc459bd7efe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f0b…36b0backed No | 34c | 61,226$20,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,816.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…2632backed Yes | 66c | 61,226$40,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,816.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 22,801$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 78c | 11,016$8,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.07 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 5c | 9,014$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.01 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 26c | 7,364$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.37 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 77c | 6,451$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 3,865$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 21c | 2,586$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.53 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 21c | 2,400$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 68c | 2,078$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.3 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 19c | 2,045$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.48 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 67c | 1,661$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 22c | 1,605$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.83 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked No | 9c | 1,324$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed No | 62c | 1,313$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.52 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 48c | 1,063$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.53 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 15c | 900$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 55c | 892.06$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.63 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 22c | 781.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed No | 25c | 550$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 5c | 520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 26c | 518.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 473.95$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 431.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…b65cbacked Yes | 76c | 410$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…e005backed No | 41c | 398.7$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 78c | 379.81$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked Yes | 80c | 360$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 354.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17d…0d4ebacked Yes | 35c | 326.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 27c | 299.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa339…2e64backed No | 15c | 274.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 15c | 269.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.06 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 77c | 259.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…0b30backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…2f0bbacked No | 25c | 236.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 43c | 234.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 23c | 222$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…f3d5backed No | 26c | 211.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 65c | 205.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 25c | 192.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…59d6backed No | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 66c | 174.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…c553backed No | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…60d8backed No | 80c | 162.81$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…f01dbacked No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…481bbacked Yes | 74c | 145$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 31c | 143.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa12a…411ebacked Yes | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…0ba9backed No | 24c | 125.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed No | 16c | 122.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 78c | 121.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 113.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked No | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a1cfbacked No | 18c | 109.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 100.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…fbc1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…7d54backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…e5ddbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…73c2backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…04a2backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…60afbacked Yes | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…c7e4backed No | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 69c | 83.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…d1fcbacked No | 25c | 81.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 77c | 78.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed No | 14c | 78.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 78.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…fc73backed No | 26c | 76.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…79b1backed No | 79c | 76.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…86a0backed Yes | 80c | 75.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…b2e6backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 31c | 66.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…60edbacked Yes | 80c | 64.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…2ca5backed Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…9ff3backed Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…e617backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…4742backed No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…aad5backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a44bbacked Yes | 77c | 46.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…de91backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…ed0cbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…4546backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 69c | 27.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4a…97babacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…cef8backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…f1c5backed Yes | 77c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.