NFL · resolved market
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted in the First Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d2e91daa87c441b73a9681c6d4bd4f5302ee8e2fd366525aa28cda835216cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 22c | 6,440$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 78c | 2,072$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.64 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,744$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.74 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 76c | 1,126$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.77 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…0ae6backed Yes | 78c | 1,086$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 12c | 946.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 74c | 771.01$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.75 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 75c | 503.58$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 10c | 197.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…e182backed Yes | 80c | 181.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…43e6backed Yes | 79c | 170.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 110.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed Yes | 79c | 103.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 101.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…8ea3backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…1ea2backed No | 20c | 90.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 72c | 51.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…b736backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…add1backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…e5dcbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.